JetBlue Stock Looks Unlikely To Bounce Soon After 17% Fall Last Month

JetBlue Airways Corporation stock (NASDAQ: JBLU) is down 17% in the past month, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 which was down 8.9% over this period. If you look at the change over the last one week and ten days, too, the stock has returned -6.3% and -18%, performing much worse than the broader markets on both occasions. JetBlue’s most recent Q2 ’22 earnings report, saw revenue rising from $1.5 billion in Q2 ’21 to $2.45 billion in Q2 ’22, driven primarily by a $1 billion rise in sales from the passenger segment. Rising fuel expenses saw operating costs nearly triple over this period, and the company reported an operating loss of $113 million, down strongly from an operating profit of $147 million for Q2 ’21. Combined with a rise in the effective tax rate, the company’s net earnings dropped, and EPS came in much lower at -$0.58, compared to $0.20 in Q2 ’21.

Now, is JetBlue stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a weak 41% chance of a rise in JBLU stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on JBLU Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see JetBlue Airways (JBLU) Stock Return. 

Twenty-One Day: JBLU -17%, vs. S&P500 -8.9%; Underperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 41% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• JBLU stock lost 17% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 8.9%
• A change of -17% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 87 times out of 2514 in the last 10 years
• Of these 87 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 36 occasions
• This points to a 41% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: JBLU -18%, vs. S&P500 -7%; Underperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 41% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• JBLU stock lost 18% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 7%
• A change of -18% or more over ten trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 39 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 39 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 16 occasions
• This points to a 41% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: JBLU -6.3%, vs. S&P500 -3.1%; Underperformed market

(10% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next five days)

• JBLU stock lost 6.3% over a five-day trading period ending 9/29/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 3.1% over this period.
• A change of -6.3% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 10% likelihood event, which has occurred 250 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 250 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 143 occasions
• This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/30/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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