No Recovery for Intel’s Server Processor Share Yet
Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Intel’s (NASDAQ:INTC) stock over the last week: (1) Intel Server Processor Market Share and (2) Intel Server Processor Pricing. Their forecasts suggest that Intel Server Processor Market Share as well as Pricing will remain mostly in line with the Trefis forecast. These projections suggest a combined upside of around 1% for Intel’s stock.
Server processors is one of the most important division for Intel’s stock, constituting around 21% of the $25 Trefis price estimate for Intel’s stock. We forecast that Intel Server Processor Market Share will increase slightly in the near term and remain flat thereafter till the end of Trefis forecast period. A potential decline in its market share would benefit competitors AMD (NYSE:AMD) and nVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) immensely.
As server processors form a core business for Intel, the stock is quite sensitive to (1) Intel Server Processor Market Share and (2) Intel Server Processor Pricing. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
1. Intel Server Processor Market Share
The average of forecasts for Intel Server Processor Market Share created by Trefis members indicated a projected decrease from 72.4% in 2010 to 69.9% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from 70.5% in 2010 to 65.5% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for Intel’s stock. In the past, Intel Server Processor Market Share has decreased from 95.1% in 2003 to 70.3% in 2009.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Intel’s stock to Intel Server Processor Market Share.
Our complete analysis for Intel Server Processor Market Share is here.
2. Intel Server Processor Pricing
The average of forecasts for Intel Server Processor Pricing created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from $440 in 2010 to $448 by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of pricing remaining flat at $456 over the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply very little downside to the Trefis price estimate for Intel’s stock. In the past, Intel Server Processor Pricing has decreased from $611 in 2003 to about $443 in 2009.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Intel’s stock to Intel Server Processor Pricing.