Hartford Financial Stock Lost 1.2% In One Week, What’s Next?

Hartford Financial’s stock (NYSE: HIG) decreased 1.2% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 5.3%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (-0.3% vs -3.4%) and one month (1.6% vs -3.9%). 

The property & casualty (P&C) insurance giant surpassed the earnings estimates in the third quarter of 2022, while the revenues were in-line with expectations. It posted total revenues of $5.58 billion, 2% less than the year-ago period. The drop was mainly due to lower net investment income, and a decrease in net realized gains (losses) from $70 million to -$166 million. However, the total earned premiums increased 8% y-o-y to $4.9 billion in the quarter, primarily driven by growth in the commercial P&C and group insurance segments. Notably, earned premiums contribute close to 80% of the top line. The improvement in the core earnings was the main reason behind the recent stock movement.

Now, is HIG stock set to rise over the next month, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a more than 61% chance of a rise in HIG stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on  Hartford Financial’s Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: HIG 1.6%, vs. S&P500 -3.9%; Outperformed market

(43% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• Hartford Financial stock improved 1.6% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decrease of 3.9%
• A change of 1.6% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 43% likelihood event, which has occurred 1089 times out of 2517 in the last ten years.
• Of these 1089 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 661 occasions
• This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: HIG -0.3%, vs. S&P500 -3.4%; Outperformed market

(43% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• Hartford Financial stock decreased 0.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) loss of 3.4%
• A change of -0.3% or more over ten trading days is a 43% likelihood event, which has occurred 1071 times out of 2518 in the last ten years.
• Of these 1071 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 621 occasions
• This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: HIG -1.2%, vs. S&P500 -5.3%; Outperformed market

(31% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next five days)

• Hartford Financial stock lost 1.2% over a five-day trading period ending 12/20/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decrease of 5.3%
• A change of -1.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 31% likelihood event, which has occurred 768 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 768 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 470 occasions
• This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/21/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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