How Low Will Home Depot’s Price Go If Revenue Growth Stalls

-3.78%
Downside
420
Market
404
Trefis
HD: The Home Depot logo
HD
The Home Depot

Home Depot (NYSE:HD) has reported solid results through the first three quarters of the year, reaffirming its guidance of 6.3% sales growth and 4.9% comp sales growth for 2016, and now expects full-year EPS to grow 15.9% to $6.33, up from the estimate of $6.31 after Q2, estimate of $6.27 after Q1, and estimate of $6.12-$6.18 after 2015 full-year results announcements. On the other hand, its chief competitor Lowe’s adjusted its previous estimate of 10% top line growth in 2016 to a 9-10% growth estimate, and adjusted its estimate of comp sales growth to 3-4% for 2016, down from an earlier estimate of 4% comp growth, after weaker-than-expected Q3 results.

While Home Depot has enjoyed strong growth, consumer spending on home improvement could grow moderately, stalling revenue growth at Home Depot. As can be seen from our scenario chart, a 3% growth rate through 2016-2021 will see the price estimate of the company fall by approximately 10%.

HD Q&A 13

Relevant Articles
  1. What’s Next For Home Depot Stock After An Upbeat Q3?
  2. With The Stock Almost Flat This Year, Will Q2 Results Drive Home Depot’s Stock Higher?
  3. With The Stock Flat This Year, Will Q1 Results Drive Home Depot Stock Higher?
  4. Down 8% This Year Will Home Depot Stock Rebound After Its Q3?
  5. Home Depot Stock To See Little Movement Past Q2
  6. Why Homebuilder Stocks Are Soaring This Year

Have more questions on Home Depot? See the links below.

Notes:

1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com
2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to our complete analysis for Home Depot

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