What To Expect From Goldman Sachs Stock?

Goldman Sachs stock (NYSE: GS) has lost 0.5% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (up 0.6%). In addition, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (-1.3% vs 3.2%) and one month (-0.5% vs -3.6%). 

The investment bank recently released its fourth-quarter results, with revenues and earnings missing the consensus estimates. It posted total revenues of $10.59 billion – down 16% y-o-y. The drop was mainly due to a 48% drop in investment banking revenues and a 27% decrease in the asset & wealth management division. However, the top line was somewhat supported by improvement in FICC (fixed income, currency, & commodity) trading revenues. On the cost front, the adjusted net income decreased 69% y-o-y to $1.2 billion, primarily led by higher expenses and a build-up in provisions for credit losses.

Now, is Goldman Sachs stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 55% chance of a rise in Goldman Sachs stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Goldman Sachs Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: GS -0.5%, vs. S&P500 3.6%; Underperformed market

(39% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• Goldman Sachs stock lost 0.5% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 3.6%
• A change of -0.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 39% likelihood event, which has occurred 983 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 983 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 540 occasions
• This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: GS -1.3%, vs. S&P500 3.2%; Underperformed market

(37% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• Goldman Sachs stock decreased 1.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) gain of 3.2%
• A change of -1.3% or more over ten trading days is a 37% likelihood event, which has occurred 931 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 931 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 540 occasions
• This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: GS -0.5%, vs. S&P500 0.6%; Underperformed market

(46% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next five days)

• Goldman Sachs stock decreased 0.5% over a five-day trading period ending 01/24/2023, compared to the broader market (S&P500) gain of 0.6%
• A change of -0.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 46% likelihood event, which has occurred 1157 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 1157 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 568 occasions
• This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/25/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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