Will Barrick Gold Stock Recover From The Sell Off?

The shares of Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD), one of the largest gold producers in the world, have declined about 7% over the last month, compared to the S&P 500 which remains up by about 3% over the same period. Gold prices have trended lower recently, falling from almost $1,960 per ounce in early February to $1,870 presently, as stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data stoked fears that the Federal Reserve would continue to remain hawkish. This has resulted in a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which, in turn, negatively impacted gold prices. Moreover, in mid-January Barrick reported preliminary financial results for Q4 and FY’22, noting that gold production for the year stood at 4.14 million ounces, falling short of its guidance of 4.2 million ounces. The shortfall is attributed to repairs and upgrades in Nevada and delays in the reopening of the Porgera mine in Papua New Guinea. That said, the company’s copper production for the year was in line with guidance.

However, now that Barrick stock has seen a decline of about 7% over the last month, will it continue its downward trend in the near term, or is a recovery imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a roughly equal chance of a rise or a decline in GOLD stock over the next month. There were 717 instances in the last 10 years when Barrick Gold (GOLD) stock saw a trailing 21-day drop of 6.7% or more. Now, 363 of those instances resulted in GOLD stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 363 out of 717, or about a 51% chance of a rise in Barrick Gold stock over the next month. See our analysis on  Barrick Gold Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years data

• After moving -2% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 45% of the occasions.
• After moving -9% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 60% of the occasions
• After moving -7% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 51% of the occasions.

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/13/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016