Will GameStop Stock Continue To Rise?

The stock price of GameStop (NYSE: GME) saw a large 14% fall yesterday (Nov 23) after a sharp rise over the recent weeks. Despite yesterday’s fall, GME stock is up 23% over the last month, while it is up a very large 1035% year-to-date. The stock has been very volatile this year driven by a broader rally seen in “meme” stocks (refers to the stocks that see growth primarily fueled by social media attention). The Reddit mentions and elevated short interest contributed to the rise in GME stock this year. That said, there is no company-specific news to support the stock price rally over the recent weeks. In fact, given the lack of fundamentals, it is best for long term investors to avoid the stock, in our view. In fact, the price estimate of $88 per average of analyst forecasts reflects a large 60% downside from the current levels.

Now, what about the near term? Is GME stock poised to see even higher levels or is a fall imminent? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, GME stock can move in either direction with nearly an equal chance of a fall or a rise across five-days, ten-days, as well as the twenty-one days period, implying that the stock is best avoided for now. See our analysis on GameStop Stock Return for more details.

While GME stock may move in either direction, it is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out GameStop Stock Comparison With Peers to see how GME stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons. Also, if meme stocks at-large see a broader rally, it is likely that GME stock will also see higher levels.

1D: GME -14%, vs. S&P500 0.1%; Underperformed market

(Extremely rare event)

• GameStop stock dropped 14% on 11/23/2021, compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.1%
• A change of -14% or more over one trading day is an extremely rare event, which has occurred 16 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years

5D: GME 3.2%, vs. S&P500 -0.2%; Outperformed market

(29% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next 5 days)

• GameStop stock rose 3.2% over the last five trading days (one week), compared to broader market (S&P500) decline of 0.2%
• A change of 3.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 29% likelihood event, which has occurred 740 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 740 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 357 occasions
  This points to a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

10D: GME 3.5%, vs. S&P500 0.2%; Outperformed market

(31% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• GameStop stock rose 3.5% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.2%
• A change of 3.5% or more over ten trading days is a 31% likelihood event, which has occurred 775 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 775 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 393 occasions
  This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

21D: GME 23%, vs. S&P500 2.8%; Outperformed market

(9% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• GameStop stock rose 23% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.8%
• A change of 23% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 237 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 237 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 126 occasions
  This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days