What To Expect From Corning’s Q1?

Corning (NYSE:GLW) is scheduled to release its earnings report on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. Historically, over the past five years, the stock has experienced a negative one-day return following 60% of its earnings announcements. These negative returns have shown a median of -3.1% and a maximum of -6.9%.

Analysts’ consensus estimates for the upcoming report indicate earnings per share (EPS) of $0.51 on sales of $3.63 billion. This represents a significant double-digit increase compared to the same period last year, when Corning reported EPS of $0.38 on sales of $3.26 billion. This strong anticipated performance is likely fueled by the optical communications business, benefiting from increased demand due to the growth of AI technologies and the launch of new products.

For event-driven traders, understanding Corning’s historical post-earnings stock reaction can be valuable. The immediate market response will depend on how the actual results and future outlook compare to investor expectations. However, analyzing past performance offers two potential strategies:

1. Pre-Earnings Positioning: By understanding the historical probability of a negative one-day return, traders can position themselves accordingly before the earnings announcement.
2. Post-Earnings Trading: Examining the correlation between the immediate stock reaction and medium-term returns after earnings can inform trading decisions one day following the announcement.

From a fundamental perspective, Corning currently has a market capitalization of $38 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $13 billion in revenue, achieving operational profitability with $1.1 billion in operating profits and a net income of $506 million.

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Corning’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 8 positive returns = 3.9%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -3.1%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

GLW 1D, 5D, & 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

GLW Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns