How Will General Mills Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
General Mills (NYSE:GIS) is set to report its earnings for its 3Q ended in February, on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. The company is projected to report $0.97 earnings per share, a drop from the prior year’s $1.17, and sales of $4.98 billion, representing a 2.4% decrease. General Mills’ first-half results were favorably influenced by specific timing factors, which the company predicts to reverse in the latter half of the year, weighing on its overall financial performance.
General Mills has $33 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $20 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.7 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.6 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
Image by Aline Ponce from Pixabay
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See earnings reaction history of all stocks
General Mills’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 2.5%, and median of the 11 negative returns =-3.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
GIS 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
GIS Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of General Mills stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before General Mills. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
GIS Correlation With Peer Earnings
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like General Mills, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.
| Returns | Mar 2025 MTD [1] |
2025 YTD [1] |
2017-25 Total [2] |
| GIS Return | -1% | -5% | 29% |
| S&P 500 Return | -7% | -6% | 147% |
| Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio | -6% | -8% | 600% |
[1] Returns as of 3/14/2025
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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