How Will GE Aerospace Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

GE Aerospace (NYSE:GE) is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. With a current market capitalization of $194 billion, GE has demonstrated operational profitability, reporting $39 billion in revenue, $6.8 billion in operating profit, and $6.6 billion in net income over the last twelve months. For the upcoming earnings release, consensus estimates point to earnings of $1.26 per share on sales of $9.04 billion. GE’s sales are expected to be supported by its strong aftermarket business. However, a potential headwind exists due to China reportedly asking its airlines to halt deliveries from Boeing amidst the ongoing tariff trade war. This situation could negatively impact GE, as the company manufactures engines for Boeing’s aircraft.

For event-driven traders looking to potentially capitalize on GE’s earnings announcement, understanding historical stock reactions can be beneficial. Over the past five years, GE stock has shown positive returns one day after earnings announcements 58% of the time, with a median positive return of 4.6% and a maximum one-day positive return of 8.3%. It’s important to note that this historical data reflects a period when GE’s stock encompassed its Aerospace, Healthcare, and Vernova businesses.

There are two common approaches for trading around earnings events: first, analyzing historical probabilities to position before the release; second, examining the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings to inform trading decisions afterward. While the actual stock reaction will depend on how GE’s reported results compare to consensus expectations, understanding these historical patterns can offer insights for event-driven traders. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

GE Aerospace’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 58% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage remains 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 11 positive returns = 4.6%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -3.0%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

GE observed 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

GE Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like GE Aerospace, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates