Is Expedia Stock Worth A Look After An 18% Gain?

Expedia’s (NASDAQ: EXPE) stock, a travel company providing everything from airline tickets, hotel rooms, car rentals, to cruises, has increased by almost 18% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands at around $168. While Q4 did not show any real sequential progress due to rising coronavirus cases across the globe and rolling shutdowns of various travel markets, still it brought signs of hope in the form of vaccine approvals. The market outlook for the travel sector has grown as the vaccine rollout gained steam since last month. This could, eventually, make way for Expedia’s business to grow again after it saw a revenue decline of 57% year-over-year in 2020. It should be noted that the broader S&P 500 returned close to a 1% decline over the last twenty-one days. Now, is EXPE stock poised to grow further? We believe that the company’s stock is still undervalued at about 30x consensus fiscal 2022 earnings and that the stock could grow going forward. Specifically, there is a 59% chance of a rise in EXPE’s stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last five years. See our analysis on EXPE’s Stock Chances of Rise for more details.

Five Days: EXPE 4.1%, vs. S&P500 -1.7%; Outperformed market (16% likelihood event)

• Expedia stock rose 4.1% over a five-day trading period, compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 1.7%
• A change of 4.1% or more over five trading days is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 197 times out of 1256 in the last five years

Ten Days: EXPE 4.5%, vs. S&P500 -1.1%; Outperformed market (5% likelihood event)

• Expedia stock rose 4.5% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 1.1%
• A change of 4.5% or more over ten trading days is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 66 times out of 1240 in the last five years

Twenty-one Days: EXPE 18%, vs. S&P500 -0.9%; Outperformed market (6% likelihood event)

• Expedia stock rose 18% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 0.9%
• A change of 18% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 6% likelihood event, which has occurred 74 times out of 1198 in the last five years

While EXPE stock is likely undervalued right now, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how the stock valuation for Alphabet vs. Emergent Biosolutions shows a disconnect with their relative operational growth. You can find many such discontinuous pairs here.

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