More Room For Growth In EQT Stock?

The shares of EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) have gained 9.4% in the past week, assisted by broader momentum in the oil & gas industry. Considering average daily sales volumes, the company is the largest producer of natural gas in the U.S. Per recent filings, EQT expects FY2021 operating cash flows to be comparable to 2019 levels – indicating a strong improvement in finances. According to the Trefis AI Engine, which identifies trends in the company’s stock price using ten years of historical data, EQT stock is likely to gain 4.6% in the next month, given the 9.4% return in the past week.

But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding EQT Corporation stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test EQT stock chances of a rise after a fall and vice versa. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

IF EQT stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, EQT stock moves an average of 3 percent, with a 55.5% probability of a positive return over this period.

Also, given a -5% movement for the stock over 5 trading days, it has historically witnessed an excess return of 1.3% compared to the S&P500 over the next 21 trading days, with a 49.5% percent probability of a positive excess return.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of EQT Stock Movements:

Question 1: Is the average return for EQT stock higher after a drop?

Answer:

Consider two situations,

Case 1: EQT stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: EQT stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the average return for EQT stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

EQT stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 3% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 1.4% for Case 2.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how EQT stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?

Answer:

If you buy and hold EQT stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For EQT stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for EQT after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.

Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?

Answer:

The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although EQT stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.

EQT’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for EQT stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market since 2016.

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