e.l.f. Beauty Stock Has Fallen 22%, Time to Enter?
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) stock has fallen by 22.2% in less than a month, from $94.16 on 23rd Jan, 2026 to $73.26 now. Should you buy this dip?
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, ELF stock passes basic quality checks. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 33% , with median peak return reaching 66%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -0.7% |
| 3M | 8.5% |
| 6M | 7.7% |
| 12M | 33.2% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
ELF had 6 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 66% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 277 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -20% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | ELF Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | ELF | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 33% | 66% | -20% | 277 | ||||
| 11062025 | -41% | 2% | -3% | 23% | -11% | 78 | ||
| 2032025 | -31% | -1% | -20% | 57% | -47% | 227 | ||
| 8122024 | -32% | -2% | -19% | 19% | -65% | 11 | ||
| 3162020 | -41% | -25% | 206% | 212% | -12% | 364 | ||
| 12202018 | -36% | -10% | 86% | 118% | -14% | 327 | ||
| 8092018 | -40% | 6% | 69% | 76% | -26% | 364 | ||
e.l.f. Beauty Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 16.7% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 47.4% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 16.2% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 5.9 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 6.6 |
Not sure if you can take a call on ELF stock? Consider portfolio approach
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