How Will eBay Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) is scheduled to release its earnings report on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. An analysis of the stock’s historical performance following earnings announcements over the past five years reveals that eBay experienced a negative one-day return in 57% of these instances. The median negative return was -7.1%, with the largest one-day drop reaching -11.7%.

For event-driven traders, understanding these historical tendencies can be valuable. There are two primary strategies: first, to analyze the historical probabilities of different post-earnings stock movements to establish a position before the earnings release. Second, to examine the correlation between the immediate stock reaction and medium-term returns after the earnings are announced, and then position accordingly.

Current consensus estimates predict earnings per share (EPS) of $1.34 on revenue of $2.55 billion for the upcoming quarter. This compares to the same period last year, which saw earnings of $1.25 per share on revenue of $2.56 billion. Higher inflation and weak consumer sentiment will likely weigh on the company’s top-line growth.

From a fundamental standpoint, eBay currently has a market capitalization of $32 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $10 billion in revenue, achieving $2.3 billion in operating profits and a net income of $2.0 billion.

Ultimately, the market’s reaction to eBay’s upcoming earnings will largely hinge on how the actual financial results compare to these consensus estimates and broader market expectations.

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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eBay’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 37% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 27% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 7 positive returns = 1.6%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -7.1%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

EBAY 1D, 5D, & 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

EBAY Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

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