What To Expect From eBay Stock?

eBay stock (NASDAQ: EBAY) has gained 3.4% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (up 0.4%). However, the opposite trend was observed over the last ten days (-1.9% vs -1.8%) and one-month period (-8.7% vs -6.2%). Notably, the recent stock volatility was due to a drop in online sales because of the normalization of consumer behavior and tough macroeconomic conditions.

The company operates an online marketplace “eBay.com”, where third-party buyers and sellers can transact in a variety of products (both new and used goods). It posted mixed results in the third quarter of 2023, with revenues topping the estimates but earnings missing the mark. The top line decreased 5% y-o-y to $2.4 billion, mainly due to an 8% decrease in international revenues. Further, the gross merchandise value (GMV) fell by 11% in the quarter. That said, the drop in GMV was somewhat offset by a 0.96% increase in the take rate (net transaction revenues divided by GMV). Overall, the net income decreased from $264 million to -$69 million.

Now, is eBay stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 60% chance of a rise in eBay stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on eBay Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: EBAY -8.7%, vs. S&P500 -6.2%; Underperformed market

(less than 9% likelihood event; 60% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• eBay stock lost 8.7% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 6.2%
• A change of -8.7% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 235 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 235 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 142 occasions
• This points to a 60% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: EBAY -1.9%, vs. S&P500 -1.8%; Underperformed market

(less than 32% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• eBay stock decreased 1.9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) loss of 1.8%
• A change of -1.9% or more over ten trading days is a 32% likelihood event, which has occurred 811 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 811 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 437 occasions
• This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: EBAY 3.4%, vs. S&P500 0.4%; Outperformed market

(20% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next five days)

• eBay stock gained 3.4% over a five-day trading period ending 12/30/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) increase of 0.4%
• A change of 3.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 20% likelihood event, which has occurred 500 times out of 2518 in the last ten years
• Of these 500 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 258 occasions
• This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

Check out how eBay Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/2/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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