DexCom Earnings: What To Expect For The Stock?

DexCom (NASDAQ:DXCM) will release its earnings report on Thursday, May 1, 2025. Historically, the stock has exhibited significant volatility around its earnings announcements. Over the past five years, DXCM experienced a negative one-day return in 61% of instances, with a median negative return of -8.2% and a maximum negative return of -40.7%. This historical pattern suggests a high degree of price fluctuation during earnings periods.

For event-driven traders, understanding these historical tendencies can potentially offer an edge. Two primary strategies emerge: first, analyzing historical probabilities to establish a position before the earnings release; second, examining the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the announcement to inform subsequent positioning.

Currently, consensus estimates project earnings per share of $0.33 on revenue of $1.02 billion, compared to the prior year’s first quarter figures of $0.32 EPS on $921 million in sales.

From a fundamental perspective, DexCom currently holds a market capitalization of $28 billion, with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $4.0 billion, operating profits of $600 million, and a net income of $576 million.

If you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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DexCom’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 39% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 7 positive returns = 9.3%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -5.0%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

DXCM 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

DXCM Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of DexCom stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before DexCom. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

DXCM Correlation With Peer Earnings

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