What’s Happening With Dish Stock?

The stock price of satellite TV and wireless services provider Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) has declined by almost 35% over the past month, compared to the S&P 500 which remains down by about 8% over the same period. The recent decline follows the company’s weak Q1 2022 results, which missed analyst estimates on both revenue and earnings amid higher than expected pay-TV subscriber losses. Dish’s revenues for the quarter declined by almost 4% year-over-year to around $4.33 billion, while earnings fell 31% from a year earlier to $0.68 per share. Dish lost about 462,000 pay-TV subscribers, taking its total pay-TV base to just about 10.24 million.  Moreover, the ongoing 5G wireless network build-out is also hurting Dish’s cash flows, with the company burning about $191 million in cash over Q1, compared to free cash flows of $729 million last year. Investors aren’t taking too well to the declining sales and rising cash burn, considering rising interest rates and the tightening monetary environment, which has been causing a broader market rotation into stocks with a higher cash flow yield.

However, now that DISH stock has seen a decline of about 35% over the last month, will it continue its downward trajectory in the near term, or is a rally imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a strong chance of a rise in DISH stock over the next month. Out of 17 instances in the last ten years that DISH stock saw a twenty-one-day decline of 35% or more, 17 of them resulted in DISH stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). While nothing is certain, this implies a very strong chance of rise in Dish stock over the next month based on historical data. See our analysis on Dish Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.

While DISH stock has seen a big decline recently, there are several peers in its sector that also look like a compelling bet. Check out how Dish Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years’ data

• After moving -6% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 53% of the occasions.
• After moving -27% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 18% of the occasions
• After moving -35% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 100% of the occasions.

This pattern suggests that DISH stock has a strong chance of moving upward in the next month.

We value Dish Network stock at about $38 per share, marking a potential upside of about 70% from the current market price. See our analysis on Dish Network Valuation: Expensive Or Cheap for more details.

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/14/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016