How Will Cintas Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Cintas (NASDAQ: CTAS), which provides businesses with a wide range of products and services, covering areas like uniforms, facility maintenance, first aid and safety supplies, and fire protection, is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, March 26, 2025. Analysts anticipate the company will report earnings of $1.06 per share on revenues of $2.6 billion, representing an increase from the previous year’s earnings of $0.96 per share on sales of $2.4 billion.

The company has $77 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $9.9 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.2 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.7 Bil. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Cintas’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 71% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 80% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 12 positive returns = 3.7%, and median of the 5 negative returns =-2.6%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

CTAS observed 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

CTAS Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Cintas stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Cintas. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

CTAS Correlation With Peer Earnings

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[1] Returns as of 3/24/2025
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016