Up 6% This Week, Can Cisco Systems Stock Continue Its Streak?

Cisco Systems Inc. stock (NASDAQ: CSCO) is up 6.6% in the past week (five trading days), performing better than the S&P 500, which was up 3.3% over this period. Additionally, if you look at the change over the last ten days and one month too, the stock has returned -0.3% and -1.6%, performing better than the broader markets on both occasions. Cisco’s most recent FY ’22 earnings (Cisco’s FY ends in July), saw revenue rising from $49.8 billion in FY ’21 to $51.6 billion in FY ’22. Additionally, COGS and other operating expenses rose at a slower rate, and EBIT margins expanded from 25.8% to 27.1% over this period. Due to this, net income rose and EPS came in higher at $2.83 in FY ’22, against $2.51 in FY ’21.

Now, is Cisco stock set to continue its outperformance or could we expect a pull back? We believe that there is a strong 64% chance of a rise in CSCO stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on CSCO Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Cisco (CSCO) Stock Return. 

Twenty-One Day: CSCO -1.6%, vs. S&P500 -4.1%; Outperformed market

(30% likelihood event; 64% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• CSCO stock lost 1.6% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 4.1%
• A change of -1.6% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 30% likelihood event, which has occurred 752 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 752 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 479 occasions
• This points to a 64% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: CSCO -0.3%, vs. S&P500 -2.3%; Underperformed market

(44% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• CSCO stock lost a marginal 0.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.3%
• A change of -0.3% or more over ten trading days is a 44% likelihood event, which has occurred 1107 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 1107 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 639 occasions
• This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: CSCO 6.6%, vs. S&P500 3.3%; Outperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next five days)

• CSCO stock gained 6.6% over a five-day trading period ending 10/19/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up 3.3% over this period.
• A change of 6.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 53 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 53 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 30 occasions
• This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 10/20/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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