Why Have We Revised Our Price Estimate For Chipotle Downwards?

+2.49%
Upside
59.28
Market
60.76
Trefis
CMG: Chipotle Mexican Grill logo
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill

Chipotle Mexican Grill’s (CMG) recent earnings failed to impress, despite the company’s many efforts to revive growth. One of the most watched metric for the industry, comparable sales, which was estimated to fall by roughly 19% by analysts, came in much lower at -22%, registering barely any improvement. Further, despite the various marketing and promotional gimmicks it has been offering, Chipotle’s revenues were down 15% on an annual basis in the third quarter. The promotional activities, in turn, resulted in the company’s operating expenses rising by as much as 7% y-o-y, excluding depreciation and impairment charges. Even as a percentage of revenue, operating expenses continued to be higher, likely due to heavy spending on advertising and marketing campaigns that Chipotle has undertaken to restore its brand image. Consequently, the company’s margins suffered a significant decline.

Although Chipotle is contemplating adding more menu items and tying the whole experience together through digital innovation, in order to recover its comps and enhance the guest experience, we think that it may be too early to see a turnaround, as its key statistics remain under pressure. Consequently, we have revised our price estimate of CMG downwards.

1411 14111

Relevant Articles
  1. How Did Chipotle Stock Gain 20% This Year Despite Inflationary Headwinds?
  2. Up 17% This Year, Will Higher Pricing Boost Chipotle’s Stock Post Q2 Earnings?
  3. Where Is Chipotle Stock Headed Post Stock Split?
  4. Chipotle Stock Is Up 39% This Year. What’s Happening With The Company?
  5. Rising 25% Year To Date, Will Q1 Results Drive Chipotle Stock Higher?
  6. Up 11% Already This Year, Does Chipotle Stock Have More Room To Run After Q4 Results?

Have more questions about Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG)? See the links below:

Notes:

1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com
2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to our complete analysis for Chipotle Mexican Grill

See More at Trefis | View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis)

Get Trefis Technology