How Will Comcast Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, April 24, 2025. We expect earnings to face some headwinds for the quarter, due to higher competition and slower growth in the company’s bread-and-butter broadband business. Over the last quarter, the company experienced larger-than-expected broadband subscriber losses of 139,000 residential customers due to mounting competition from telecom companies such as T-Mobile. The company could also see some headwinds in its media division, amid mixed consumer spending, which could hurt advertising sales. Additionally, the theme parks segment might face challenges following recent wildfires in Southern California, which is likely to have impacted attendance at the company’s Universal Studios park in Los Angeles. Overall, per consensus estimates,

earnings for the quarter are expected to come in at about $0.99 per share, down by about 5% year-over-year, while revenues are expected to stay roughly flat at $29.8 billion.

The company has $131 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $124 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $23 Bil in operating profits and net income of $16 Bil. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Comcast’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
• The percentage remains the same at 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.4%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -4.7%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

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Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

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