What’s Next For Anheuser-Busch InBev Stock After A 17% Rise In A Month?
Anheuser-Busch InBev stock (NYSE: BUD) has seen a rise of 17% in a month, while it’s down 1% this year. This compares with 6% and -14% returns for the broader S&P500 index over the same periods, respectively. This outperformance can partly be attributed to an upbeat Q3 performance, with sales and earnings rising, driven by higher demand. Furthermore, a recent upward revision in BUD’s stock price estimate from one of the Wall Street research firms has also bolstered its growth. Anheuser-Busch InBev is also the official sponsor for Qatar’s ongoing FIFA World Cup. Given that Qatar has banned the sale of beer inside the stadiums, the company is reportedly seeking a discount from its sponsorship deal with FIFA. [1]
But now that BUD stock has seen a 17% rise in a month will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a high chance of an increase in BUD stock over the next month. BUD stock has seen a move of 17% or more only 35 times in the last ten years. Of those, 26 resulted in BUD stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 26 out of 35, or a 74% chance of a rise in BUD stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Anheuser-Busch InBev Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
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- What’s Next For Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) Stock After A 7% Fall This Year Despite Q4 Earnings Beat?
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- What’s Happening With Anheuser-Busch InBev Stock?
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data
- After moving 5.9% or more over five days, the stock rose on 41% of the occasions in the next five days.
- After moving 8.5% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 51% of the occasions
- After moving 17.0% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 74% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
This pattern suggests a higher chance of a rise in BUD stock over the next ten and twenty-one days.
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers And S&P500
- Five-Day Return: BUD highest at 5.9%; TAP lowest at -0.5%
- Ten-Day Return: BUD highest at 8.5%; SAM lowest at 1.8%
- Twenty-One Days Return: BUD highest at 17.0%; SAM lowest at 3.8%
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| Returns | Dec 2022 MTD [1] |
2022 YTD [1] |
2017-22 Total [2] |
| BUD Return | 1% | -1% | -43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 0% | -14% | 82% |
| Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio | 1% | -17% | 229% |
[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/2/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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- AB Inbev: Should BUD get reduced World Cup sponsorship deal after FIFA curbs beer sales?, Jenny McCall, Nov 25, 2022, Capital [↩]