How Markets Reacted To Anheuser-Busch InBev’s Proposed Entry Into Biotech?

Anheuser-Busch InBev stock (NYSE: BUD) increased 4% in just the last one week, outperforming the S&P 500 which was down 2% during this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, BUD stock has increased (4.4% and 7%, respectively) and outperformed the broader market on both the occasions. The stock has been on an upswing over recent weeks after the company announced a surprise push into the world of biotech. Rather than giving away the malt barley byproducts of the beer brewing process, the company will instead turn these into plant-based proteins that can be sold on to the food and beverage industry. This could generate an additional US$20 million in revenue next year, and go on to grow exponentially in the future. Such an innovative line of thinking at a time when more people are shifting from beer to other spirits has enthused investors.

Now, is BUD stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 60% chance of a rise in BUD stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on BUD Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: BUD 6.9%, vs. S&P500 2.1%; Outperformed market

(14% likelihood event; 60% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• BUD stock increased 6.9% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.1%
• A change of 6.9% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 14% likelihood event, which has occurred 350 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 350 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 209 occasions
• This points to a 60% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: BUD 4.4%, vs. S&P500 1.1%; Outperformed market

(19% likelihood event; 47% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• BUD stock increased 4.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.1%
• A change of 4.4% or more over ten trading days is an 19% likelihood event, which has occurred 483 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 483 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 227 occasions
• This points to a 47% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: BUD 3.9%, vs. S&P500 -1.9%; Underperformed market

(9% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next five days)

• BUD stock increased 3.9% over a five-day trading period ending 01/05/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.9%
• A change of 3.9% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 236 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 236 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 119 occasions
• This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/6/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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