BNY Mellon Stock Is Down 16% In One Week What To Expect?

BNY Mellon stock (NYSE: BK) has decreased 16% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (down 4.1%). Further, the stock lost more than the broader markets over the last ten days (18% vs 6.4%) and the one month (11% vs 1.4%). The recent stock market decline was due to the higher inflation figures in the U.S., the expectation of higher than anticipated interest rate hikes by the Fed, and rising tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

The custody banking giant recently released its fourth-quarter results, topping the consensus estimates. It posted a 4% y-o-y increase in total revenues to $4.02 billion, mainly due to a 4% growth in the fee income driven by higher market values and client volumes. Notably, the company’s Assets under Custody & Administration (AuC/A) improved 14% y-o-y to $46.7 trillion, followed by a 10% rise in the Assets under Management (AuM) to $2.4 trillion. Overall, this led to an adjusted net income of $822 million in the quarter – up 17% y-o-y. Further, the bank’s top-line slightly improved to $15.9 billion in FY2021. This was because of a 4% growth in the fee and other revenue, partially offset by a 12% drop in the net interest income.

Now, is BK stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 78% chance of a rise in BNY Mellon stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on BNY Mellon Stock Chance of Rise. 

Additionally, if you are considering BNY Mellon’s stock as an investment option over a larger time frame, you can explore our forecast for BNY Mellon’s valuation.

Twenty-One Day: BK -11%, vs. S&P500 -1.4%; Underperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 80% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• BNY Mellon stock lost 11% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 1.4%
• A change of -11% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 99 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 99 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 79 occasions
• This points to a 80% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: BK -18%, vs. S&P500 -6.4%; Underperformed market

(<1% likelihood event; 88% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• BNY Mellon stock decreased 18% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) drop of 6.4%
• A change of -18% or more over ten trading days is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 8 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 8 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 7 occasions
• This points to a 88% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: BK -16%, vs. S&P500 -4.1%; Underperformed market

(<1% likelihood event; 33% probability of rise over next five days)

• BNY Mellon stock lost 16% over a five-day trading period ending 02/24/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 4.1%
• A change of -16% or more over five trading days (one week) is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 3 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 3 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on one occasion
• This points to a 33% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/25/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates