Where Is American Express Stock Headed?

American Express’ stock (NYSE: AXP) has lost 1.1% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (down 0.03%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (-2.6% vs -0.7%) and one month period (2.7% vs 4.2%). 

The credit card giant posted better-than-expected results in the third quarter of 2022, with net revenues increasing 24% y-o-y to $13.6 billion. Further, the same pattern was observed over the first nine months of the year – revenues up 28% y-o-y. It was driven by an increase in billed business, growth in the premium card portfolio, higher travel-related revenues, and improvement in net interest income. Overall, the stock has delivered a strong performance in YTD terms and has outperformed the index (-8% vs -17%).

Now, is AXP stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 64% chance of a rise in AXP stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on American Express’ Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: AXP 2.7%, vs. S&P500 4.2%; Underperformed market

(40% likelihood event; 64% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• American Express stock gained 2.7% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) increase of 4.2%
• A change of 2.7% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 40% likelihood event, which has occurred 998 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 998 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 643 occasions
• This points to a 64% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: AXP -2.6%, vs. S&P500 -0.7%; Underperformed market

(18% likelihood event; 66% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• American Express stock decreased 2.6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.7%
• A change of -2.6% or more over ten trading days is a 18% likelihood event, which has occurred 463 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 463 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 306 occasions
• This points to a 66% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Five Day: AXP -1.1%, vs. S&P500 -0.03%; Underperformed market

(31% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next five days)

• American Express stock lost 1.1% over a five-day trading period ending 11/28/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 0.03%
• A change of -1.1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 31% likelihood event, which has occurred 780 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 780 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 462 occasion
• This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/29/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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