What’s Happening With Axon Stock?

Axon Enterprise stock (NASDAQ: AXON), best known for its products, including taser and body cams for the law enforcement agencies, surged nearly 30% on Friday, November 8, after the company posted a solid Q3 beat and raised its outlook. Axon reported revenue of $544 million and earnings of $1.45 per share, compared to the consensus estimates of $527 million and $1.20 respectively. The company is benefiting from increased adoption for its products, amid continued innovation.

For example, Axon’s Draft One uses generative AI to convert the audio from the body cam into a report narrative draft. Also, it can translate over 100 languages. Such offerings help improve the efficiency of the police force. Axon’s Taser sales surged 36% y-o-y to $221.7 million in Q3, its Cloud & Services sales were also up 36%, while Sensors & Other revenue was up 18%. The company-wide sales were up 32%, driven by continued demand for Taser and body cams. Not only did Axon see strong sales growth, its adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 400 bps y-o-y to 26.7% in Q3. Higher revenues and margin expansion resulted in a bottom line of $1.45, versus 1.05 in the prior-year quarter.

This year has been spectacular for AXON stock, with returns of 133%, compared to 25% gains for the broader S&P500 index. Admirably, AXON stock has generated better returns than the broader market in each of the last three years. Returns for the stock were 28% in 2021, 6% in 2022, and 56% in 2023. Similarly, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, is less volatile. And it has outperformed the S&P 500 each year over the same period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment around rate cuts and changes from the new Trump presidency, could AXON see a strong jump? From a valuation perspective, we think AXON is fully valued at levels of around $600. At its current levels, AXON stock is trading at 25x trailing revenues, versus the stock’s average P/S ratio of 12x over the last five years. Now, some rise in the valuation multiple seems justified, given the strong sales and earnings growth. An increased adoption of its products bodes well for the stock in the long run, given that the company earns recurring revenues from sales of cartridges and services for its products. Then there is the Trump factor. Law enforcement agencies are expected to be well funded under the Trump administration. There is a possibility of increased spending on technologies and products to improve security. Axon recently acquired Dedrone to expand its security offerings, and it is expected to see an increased adoption going forward. That said, Axon’s valuation multiple has now risen 2x compared to its historical average, making the stock look expensive, in our view.

While AXON stock looks fully valued, it is helpful to see other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons. Separately, look at what’s happening with Delta stock.

[1] Returns as of 11/11/2024
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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