Down Almost 8% Last Month, What’s Next For AMD Stock?

Advanced Micro Devices stock (NASDAQ: AMD) is down almost 8% in the past month (21 trading days), largely underperforming the S&P 500 which was up a little over 3% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned -9.3% and -2.1%, underperforming the broader market on both occasions. AMD’s recent strong FY ’21 earnings saw revenue jump from $9.76 billion in FY ’20 to $16.4 billion in FY ’21. As cost of sales and other operating expenses rose at a much slower rate, operating income shot up more than 2.5x from $1.37 billion to $3.65 billion over this period. Despite a rise in the outstanding share count and a sharp jump in the effective tax rate, AMD’s EPS rose from $2.10 in FY ’20 to $2.61 in FY ’21. Despite this, the stock dropped recently due to a downgrade from Barclays, who now rates the stock a ‘hold’, cutting the price target more than 20%.

Now, is AMD stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a rally? We believe that there is an average 51% chance of a rise in AMD stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on AMD Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about AMD revenues and comparison to peers, see Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: AMD -7.6%, vs. S&P500 3.2%; Underperformed market

(23% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• AMD stock dropped 7.6% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.2%
• A change of -7.6% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 23% likelihood event, which has occurred 580 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 580 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 294 occasions
• This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: AMD -2.1%, vs. S&P500 2.5%; Underperformed market

(36% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• AMD stock lost 2.1% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.5%
• A change of -2.1% or more over ten trading days is a 36% likelihood event, which has occurred 916 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 916 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 517 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: AMD -9.3%, vs. S&P500 0.4%; Underperformed market

(8% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next five days)

• AMD stock dropped 9.3% over a five-day trading period ending 3/31/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) marginal rise of 0.4%
• A change of -9.3% or more over five trading days (one week) is an 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 207 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 207 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 108 occasions
• This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/1/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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