Can Alaska Air Group Stock Continue Outperforming The S&P?

Alaska Air Group Inc. stock (NYSE: ALK) is up around 5% in the past week, strongly outperforming the S&P 500 which was up a marginal 0.4% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, too, the stock has returned 0.7% and 0.04%, still performing better than the broader markets which dropped around 4% on both occasions. ALK’s most recent Q2 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $1.53 billion in Q2 ’21 to $2.66 billion in Q2 ’22, driven by a rise across all segments. However, with surging fuel costs, the company reported operating income of $187 million, down from $549 million for Q2 ’21. Due to this, the company’s net earnings dropped, and EPS came in lower at $1.10, compared to $3.18 in Q2 ’21.

Now, is Alaska Air stock set to continue its outperformance or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 56% chance of a rise in ALK stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on ALK Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Alaska Air (ALK) Stock Return. 

Twenty-One Day: ALK 0.04%, vs. S&P500 -3.5%; Outperformed market

(57% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• ALK stock gained a marginal 0.04% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 3.5%
• A change of 0.04% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 57% likelihood event, which has occurred 1443 times out of 2513 in the last 10 years
• Of these 1443 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 803 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: ALK 0.7%, vs. S&P500 -4.1%; Outperformed market

(49% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• ALK stock gained a marginal 0.7% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 4.1%
• A change of 0.7% or more over ten trading days is a 49% likelihood event, which has occurred 1241 times out of 2513 in the last 10 years
• Of these 1241 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 700 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: ALK 5%, vs. S&P500 0.4%; Outperformed market

(14% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)

• ALK stock rose 5% over a five-day trading period ending 9/7/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up just 0.4% over this period.
• A change of 5% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 14% likelihood event, which has occurred 348 times out of 2513 in the last 10 years
• Of these 348 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 189 occasions
• This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/8/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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