Up Almost 6% Last Month, Can Akamai Continue Its Run?

Akamai Technologies Inc. stock (NASDAQ: AKAM) is up 5.6% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), performing better than the S&P 500 which was up 4.6% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days too, the stock has returned 8.7%, performing much better than the broader markets. Akamai’s most recent Q3 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $860 million in Q3 ’21 to $882 million in Q3 ’22. However, with COGS and other operating expenses rising at a faster rate, the company reported operating income of $160 million, down from $205 million for the same period last year. Due to this, the company’s net income dropped, and EPS came in lower at $0.68, compared to $1.10 in Q3 ’21.

Now, is Akamai stock set to continue its outperformance or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is an average 50% chance of a rise in AKAM stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on AKAM Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Akamai (AKAM) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about AKAM revenue and comparison to peers, see Akamai (AKAM) Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: AKAM 5.6%, vs. S&P500 4.6%; Outperformed market

(25% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• AKAM stock gained 5.6% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.6%
• A change of 5.6% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 25% likelihood event, which has occurred 626 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 626 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 315 occasions
• This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: AKAM 8.7%, vs. S&P500 3.8%; Outperformed market

(5% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• AKAM stock gained 8.7% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.8%
• A change of 8.7% or more over ten trading days is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 138 times out of 2518 in the last 10 years
• Of these 138 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 80 occasions
• This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: AKAM -1.3%, vs. S&P500 -0.5%; Underperformed market

(34% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)

• AKAM stock lost 1.3% over a five-day trading period ending 11/21/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down a marginal 0.5% over this period.
• A change of -1.3% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 34% likelihood event, which has occurred 844 times out of 2518 in the last 10 years
• Of these 844 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 457 occasions
• This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/22/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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