After Flat Week, Can Akamai Stock Turn Things Around?

Akamai Technologies Inc. stock (NASDAQ: AKAM) is down a marginal 0.4% in the past week (five trading days), performing much worse than the S&P 500 which was up 3.4% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, too, the stock has returned 0.7% and 8.5%, performing worse than the broader markets on both occasions. Akamai’s most recent Q2 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $853 million in Q2 ’21 to $903 million in Q2 ’22. However, with COGS and other operating expenses rising at a faster rate, the company reported operating income of $175 million, down from $199 million for the same period last year. Due to this, the company’s net income dropped, and EPS came in lower at $0.75, compared to $0.96 in Q2 ’21.

Now, is Akamai stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a rally? We believe that there is a weak 43% chance of a rise in AKAM stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on AKAM Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Akamai (AKAM) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about AKAM revenue and comparison to peers, see Akamai (AKAM) Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: AKAM 8.5%, vs. S&P500 11%; Underperformed market

(14% likelihood event; 43% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• AKAM stock gained 8.5% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 11%
• A change of 8.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 14% likelihood event, which has occurred 343 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 343 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 147 occasions
• This points to a 43% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: AKAM 0.7%, vs. S&P500 4%; Underperformed market

(48% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• AKAM stock gained a marginal 0.7% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 4%
• A change of 0.7% or more over ten trading days is a 48% likelihood event, which has occurred 1220 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 1220 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 662 occasions
• This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: AKAM -0.4%, vs. S&P500 3.4%; Underperformed market

(45% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next five days)

• AKAM stock lost a marginal 0.4% over a five-day trading period ending 8/12/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up 3.4% over this period.
• A change of -0.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 45% likelihood event, which has occurred 1135 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 1135 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 632 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/15/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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