After Shedding 17% Last Month, Akamai Stock Looks Set To Turn Things Around

Akamai Technologies Inc. stock (NASDAQ: AKAM) is down 17% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down a little over 10% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days, too, the stock has lost 14%, underperforming the broader markets strongly. However, Akamai’s most recent mixed Q1 ’22 earnings saw revenue rise to $904 million, up from $843 million in Q1 ’21. Despite this, a faster rise in COGS and operating expenses, saw operating income drop from $182 million to $173 million over this period. Due to this, EPS came in lower at $0.74 in Q1 ’22, down from around $0.95 in Q1 ’21. Additionally, the current weakness in the broader markets has weighed down the stock even further.

Now, is Akamai stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a strong 82% chance of a rise in Akamai stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Akamai Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company stock returns and comparison to peers, see Akamai (AKAM) Stock Return Comparison. For additional details about Akamai’s revenues and comparison to peers, see Akamai (AKAM) Revenue Comparison

Twenty-One Day: AKAM -17%, vs. S&P500 -11%; Underperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 82% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• AKAM stock dropped 17% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 11%
• A change of -17% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 38 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 38 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 31 occasions
• This points to an 82% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: AKAM -14%, vs. S&P500 -5.9%; Underperformed market

(1% likelihood event; 24% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• AKAM stock lost 14% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 5.9%
• A change of -14% or more over ten trading days is a 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 33 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 33 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 8 occasions
• This points to a 24% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: AKAM -4.5%, vs. S&P500 -8.5%; Outperformed market

(8% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next five days)

• AKAM stock lost 4.5% over a five-day trading period ending 5/11/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down more than 8% over this period.
• A change of -4.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is an 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 205 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 205 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 114 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/12/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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