Up More Than 10% In A Month, Akamai Stock Looks Unlikely To Continue Its Rally

Akamai Technologies Inc. stock (NASDAQ: AKAM) is up more than 10% in the past month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up almost 6% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has risen 3.2% and 9% respectively, outperforming the broader markets on both occasions. Akamai’s most recent FY ’21 earnings saw revenue rise to $3.46 billion, up from $3.2 billion in FY ’20. Further, a slower rise in operating expenses meant that operating profit widened from $659 million to $783 million over this period. Despite a rise in net interest expense and a higher effective tax rate, net income rose from $557 million to $652 million over this period, with EPS rising from $3.43 to $4.01.

Now, is AKAM stock set to continue its outperformance or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is an average 44% chance of a rise in AKAM stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on AKAM Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Akamai (AKAM) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about AKAM revenue and comparison to peers, see Akamai (AKAM) Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: AKAM 11%, vs. S&P500 5.7%; Outperformed market

(11% likelihood event; 44% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• AKAM stock rose 11% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 5.7%
• A change of 11% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 11% likelihood event, which has occurred 265 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 265 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 116 occasions
• This points to a 44% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: AKAM 9%, vs. S&P500 8.3%; Outperformed market

(6% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• AKAM stock gained 9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 8.3%
• A change of 9% or more over ten trading days is a 6% likelihood event, which has occurred 148 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 148 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 90 occasions
• This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: AKAM 3.2%, vs. S&P500 2.7%; Outperformed market

(21% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next five days)

• AKAM stock rose 3.2% over a five-day trading period ending 3/29/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up around 2.7% over this period.
• A change of 3.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 21% likelihood event, which has occurred 517 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 517 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 256 occasions
• This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/30/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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