After A Strong Rally Last Month, Akamai Stock Rally To Fizzle Out?
Akamai stock (NASDAQ: AKAM) is up more than 7% in just one month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just a little over 1%. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days too, the stock has returned 1.3% and 2.4%, beating the market on both occasions. Akamai reported Q3 ’21 earnings earlier this month with revenue at $860 million, up from $793 million in Q3 ’20, seeing a YoY growth of just under 10%. With operating expenses in check, operating margins rose from 22.8% to 23.8% over this period, with an ideal blend of continued higher R&D expenses, and dropping SG&A costs. A $5 million rise in other income, combined with a roughly unchanged effective tax rate, saw EPS rise from $0.97 in Q3 ’20 to $1.10 in Q3 ’21.
Now, is Akamai stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 51% chance of a rise in AKAM stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on AKAM Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about AKAM historical returns and comparison to peers, see Akamai (AKAM) Stock Return.
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Twenty-One Day: AKAM 7.3%, vs. S&P500 1.1%; Outperformed market
(22% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- AKAM stock rose 7.3% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.1%
- A change of 7.3% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 22% likelihood event, which has occurred 546 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
- Of these 546 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 280 occasions
- This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: AKAM 2.4%, vs. S&P500 -1%; Outperformed market
(40% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- AKAM stock rose 2.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 1%
- A change of 2.4% or more over ten trading days is a 40% likelihood event, which has occurred 995 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
- Of these 995 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 524 occasions
- This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: AKAM 1.3%, vs. S&P500 -2.3%; Outperformed market
(43% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)
- AKAM stock rose 1.3% over a five-day trading period ending 11/26/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.3%
- A change of 1.3% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 43% likelihood event, which has occurred 1076 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
- Of these 1076 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 581 occasions
- This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.
| Returns | Nov 2021 MTD [1] |
2021 YTD [1] |
2017-21 Total [2] |
| AKAM Return | 7% | 7% | 68% |
| S&P 500 Return | 1% | 22% | 105% |
| Trefis MS Portfolio Return | -3% | 46% | 297% |
[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/29/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017
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