Starbucks (SBUX) Last Update 11/6/24
Related: CMG KO MCD PEP
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Starbucks
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Licensed Stores
35.2%
$38.10
Net Debt
8.5% $9.21
TOTAL
100%
$108.14
$98.93
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$97.38
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

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Starbucks Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Company Operated Stores constitute 54% of the Trefis price estimate for Starbucks's stock.
  2. Licensed Stores constitute 35% of the Trefis price estimate for Starbucks's stock.
  3. CPG, Food Service & Other constitutes 11% of the Trefis price estimate for Starbucks's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Starbucks Missed Expectations in Q4

The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.80 were down 25% year-over-year (y-o-y) and net revenue of $9.1 billion was down 3% y-o-y. The company faced challenges with a notable 7% decline in global comparable store sales and a 14% drop in China. Overall, the quarter suggests a pressing need for strategic adjustments, especially in international markets. Operating expenses increased, resulting in a 380-basis-point reduction in operating margins to 14.4%. The rise in costs was largely due to strategic investments in partner wages and promotional activities.

Note: Starbucks FY'24 ended on October 30, 2024

Turnaround Plans

Former Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol took over as Starbucks' new CEO in September 2024, and has highlighted four main areas for improvement in his turnaround plan. His initial plan is to concentrate on its U.S. business. The focus is on providing the baristas with the tools they need to consistently make great drinks in a personal way. Next, he mentioned delivering high-quality food and drinks on time, every time. Third, he wants Starbucks to go back to being a community coffee house by elevating the customer experience. And finally, he wants Starbucks to go back to telling its story. The company owns its coffee farm in Costa Rica, which serves as its base for research and innovation in coffee. However, Niccol noted that the company rarely discusses it.

Starbucks management chose not to issue fiscal year 2025 guidance, indicating a period of recalibration under the new leadership. The current management emphasizes strategic reassessment and sustaining long-term growth through improved customer engagement and operational efficiencies.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Starbucks is the world's leading roaster and retailer of specialty coffee. Through its global network of owned and franchised coffee retail outlets, Starbucks offers a wide range of products like high-quality whole bean coffees, freshly brewed coffees, Italian-style espresso beverages, cold blended beverages, food items like sandwiches, premium teas, and coffee-making equipment.

Starbucks' stores are located near offices and residential areas. They are larger, compared to its licensed stores which are much smaller and mostly located at airports and supermarkets.

Starbucks also sells its packaged coffee and tea through retail channels such as grocery stores, warehouse clubs, convenience stores, and US food service accounts.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Company-Operated Stores division is more valuable than the Franchise Stores division for Starbucks for the following two reasons:

Company-operated stores generate more revenues than franchised stores

Starbucks makes money through its company-owned stores as well as through franchise fees and royalties from franchised stores. Starbucks earns higher profit margins from franchised stores compared to company-owned stores because there are no operational and employee costs involved with franchised stores, hence Starbucks gets to keep the entire royalty & rent fee without paying for any costs.

Revenues earned from Starbucks' company-owned stores are much higher than the franchised stores. This is because, although there are costs involved, Starbucks owns 100% of the revenues from its restaurants, while it gets a percentage of the revenues (in the form of royalty fees) from its franchised restaurants.

Number of company-owned stores comparable to franchised stores

Food & beverage companies, in general, increase their reach and profits by having a large base of franchised stores. For example, McDonald's has 95% of its stores franchised, making the franchise business more valuable to its stock. However, Starbucks has almost an equal number of company-owned stores and franchised stores. In FY 24, Starbucks had 40,199 stores: 52% company-operated and 48% licensed.

KEY TRENDS

Growth in China

China remains a long-term growth driver for the company, as its GDP, is projected to grow from around $18 trillion in 2023 to nearly $28 trillion by 2027 - likely driven by a massive increase in its middle class. Moreover, the per capita coffee consumption in China is about one-half of one cup per person per year compared to approximately 300 cups per person per year in the U.S. While consumption levels in China may never be able to match those in the U.S., even attaining a small fraction of it will benefit the company immensely.

International expansion fueling growth

Most new restaurants the company plans to open are in China/Asia Pacific. The number of Starbucks outlets in these countries is still much less than the number in the U.S. New outlets opened will be a mix of company-operated and franchised restaurants.

Focus On Drive-Thrus

SBUX intends to open a majority of its new U.S. restaurants in middle America and the South, with over 80% of stores built in the year being drive-thrus. The company states that its research has indicated significant opportunities for store expansion in higher-growth, and lower-cost markets, particularly when considering rising wages and occupancy costs.