VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Capital Access Platform constitutes 48% of the Trefis price estimate for Nasdaq OMX Group's stock.
2. Financial Technology constitutes 34% of the Trefis price estimate for Nasdaq OMX Group's stock.
3. Market Services constitute 17% of the Trefis price estimate for Nasdaq OMX Group's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings

NASDAQ reported a marginally better-than-expected set of Q4 2024 earnings. While adjusted earnings stood at $0.76 per share, revenue rose about 12% to $1.23 billion. The exchange also saw its Annualized Recurring Revenue rise to $2.8 billion, an increase of 7% versus the year-ago quarter.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are some key drivers of NASDAQ's value with potential upside or downside to our price estimate for the company's stock.

• Daily Volume of U.S. derivative Contracts The daily volume of U.S. derivative contracts traded across all exchanges in the U.S. has reached over 44 million in 2024, and we estimate that it will be around 47 million by the end of our forecast period.
• Market Share of U.S. Listed Shares NASDAQ's share in the U.S. market decreased from 17.12% in 2021 to 16.44% in 2024. We expect NASDAQ's market share to increase slightly in the near term and stabilize at about 16% throughout our forecast period. If NASDAQ gains another 7% market share by the end of our forecast period, this will present an upside of about 4% to our price estimate

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Nasdaq, Inc. is a global exchange operator and technology provider that offers trading, listing, market data, and financial technology solutions. The company operates equity and derivatives markets, provides index and analytics services, and also develops market infrastructure solutions for financial institutions worldwide.

SOURCES OF VALUE

NASDAQ Stock Market

As of early 2024, the Nasdaq exchange had approximately 3,900 listed companies. The company also operates a second equity market in addition to options and futures markets and a derivative clearinghouse. The NASDAQ market is the company's most well-known brand.

Europe Operations

In Europe, Nasdaq operates Nasdaq Nordic and Nasdaq Baltic, which include stock exchanges in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The company also provides trading for derivatives and commodities via Nasdaq Commodities.

KEY TRENDS

Economic recovery to drive volumes

Over the past couple of years, recovery in economic conditions and a positive outlook of the capital markets have heightened investor confidence and improved the financial condition of listed companies. Consequently, the company saw strong growth in the number of new listings on the exchange. Further, enhanced volatility has resulted in greater trading volumes. As economic conditions continue to improve, we expect these trends to be sustained in the near term and drive growth in trading volumes and listings.

Intense competition among exchanges

There is intense competition among exchange operators such as Intercontinental Exchange (which owns the NYSE), Nasdaq, and CME Group for trading volumes, listings, and technology services. Newer entrants, including alternative trading platforms, have attempted to attract volumes by offering discounted fees, which could pressure Nasdaq to follow suit. This may impact revenues and, in turn, margins.