Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Last Update 3/24/25
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Intuitive Surgical
$610
Trefis Price
N/A
$496
Market
 
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Intuitive Surgical Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Intuitive Surgical Products constitute 81% of the Trefis price estimate for Intuitive Surgical's stock.
  2. Intuitive Surgical Services constitute 15% of the Trefis price estimate for Intuitive Surgical's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

  1. ISRG Stock Performance In Recent Years
The changes in ISRG stock over the recent years have been far from consistent. Returns for the stock were 32% in 2021, -26% in 2022, 27% in 2023, and 55% in 2024.

In comparison, returns for the S&P 500 have been 27% in 2021, -19% in 2022, 24% in 2023, and 23% in 2024 - indicating that ISRG underperformed the S&P in 2022.

  1. Q4 2024 Performance
Intuitive Surgical's top line grew 25% (y-o-y) to $2.41 billion in Q4 2024. The company placed 493 da Vinci systems during the quarter, and the total installed base rose 15% y-o-y. The worldwide da Vinci procedure volume grew 18%, driving top-line growth. The company's adjusted earnings rose to $2.21 per share in Q4 2024, compared to the $1.60 figure in the prior year's quarter.

  1. Expansion of Procedures
The company's surgical systems have been widely adopted for select procedures, but there are still many for which they have not been adopted. The company has been focused on the wider adoption of other procedures, and this has aided its top line over the recent years, a trend that is likely to continue in the near term.

  1. FDA Approvals

March 2024: da Vinci 5 surgical platform was approved by the U.S. FDA.

June 2019: The U.S. FDA clearance for da Vinci Handheld Camera.

February 2019: The U.S. FDA clearance for the Ion endoluminal system, which is designed to navigate through very small lung airways to reach peripheral nodules for biopsies.

February 2019: The U.S. FDA clearance for IRISTM augmented reality product for 3D imaging of the patient anatomy.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

  • da Vinci Surgical Systems' Installed Base: da Vinci Surgical Systems are advanced computer-assisted platforms that enable surgeons to perform minimally invasive procedures while seated at a control console. These systems significantly reduce the potential for human error during operations. Due to their minimally invasive approach, these devices help minimize surgical complications and facilitate easier post-operative recovery. The considerable advantages of minimally invasive procedures are expected to attract more patients to choose these options over conventional open surgeries.

    Furthermore, we anticipate that the benefits and operational advantages these systems offer to surgeons will continue to drive demand. Intuitive Surgical sold 1,526 units in 2024, and we project this number to grow in upcoming years. However, current challenges include the relatively high cost of these systems compared to traditional surgical instruments, along with the extensive training required to become proficient with the technology. These factors currently constrain the growth rate of unit sales.

    If Intuitive Surgical only manages to expand its installed base to 15,000 units by the end of our forecast period—compared to our current projection exceeding 20,000 units—this would result in approximately 20% downside to our current price estimate. Conversely, should the company successfully grow its installed base to 26,000 units, we could see a potential 20% upside to our current price target.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Intuitive Surgical is a company that specializes in the design, manufacture, and sale of robotic surgical systems. Their flagship product, the da Vinci Surgical System, enables surgeons to perform minimally invasive procedures with enhanced precision through console-based control, often resulting in improved outcomes for patients compared to traditional open surgery. While initially prominent in prostatectomy and hysterectomy procedures, the system's applications have broadened. Beyond the main system, Intuitive Surgical also produces and sells its own range of instruments and accessories that augment the capabilities of the da Vinci platform. Furthermore, the company offers comprehensive service agreements that include system maintenance and training for users.

With a significant portfolio of patents, Intuitive Surgical currently enjoys a position with limited direct competition within the robotic surgery market.

Potential competitors in this space include entities such as SOFAR S.p.A., Eterne, Titan Medical, Hitachi, Olympus, and Mazor Robotics.

SOURCES OF VALUE

da Vinci Surgical Systems and the accompanying Instruments and Accessories are the major sources of revenue for the company. Largely due to the following factors:

Advantages to patients

Patients undergoing minimally invasive procedures with the da Vinci Surgical System often experience several benefits compared to traditional open surgery. These include fewer and smaller incisions, reduced blood loss, shorter time spent in the hospital, quicker recovery periods, and less noticeable scarring. These advantages are expected to make such procedures more appealing to patients, leading to increased demand for the company's da Vinci systems.

Benefits to surgeons

Surgeons find numerous advantages in using Intuitive Surgical's da Vinci Surgical systems. From a comfortable console, they gain a comprehensive 3-D visualization of the entire surgical field. They then conduct the surgery by manipulating hand and foot controls that operate the robotic arms, providing enhanced precision as the robotic instruments are steadier than human hands. This combination of user-friendliness and the potential for better surgical results is anticipated to increase surgeons' demand for these advanced systems.

KEY TRENDS

Geographical expansion

Intuitive Surgical is observing a rising percentage of its revenue originating from international markets, with Europe being a primary contributor. This proportion of international revenue has grown from 28% in 2017 to 33% in 2024. Recognizing the substantial growth potential offered by the aging populations and increasing acceptance of robotic surgery in Japan and South Korea, the company is also expanding its operations in these regions.

Healthcare reforms could impact sales

The ongoing healthcare reforms are expanding the pool of individuals covered by public insurance, but this may also lead to reduced reimbursement rates from public payers. Furthermore, private insurance providers are increasingly exercising caution when it comes to approving reimbursements. These developments could dampen the demand for medical devices, with more costly technologies like the da Vinci Surgical Systems potentially facing the most significant impact.

Efficiency concerns

While Intuitive Surgical has often promoted its da Vinci system based on the potential for reduced costs, a comprehensive study by Columbia University indicated that procedures performed with this technology might, in fact, be considerably more expensive than conventional minimally invasive surgeries, without a corresponding increase in significant benefits. Following the release of this study, Intuitive Surgical has observed a decrease in the volume of surgeries conducted using its systems. This trend in sales could persist until the company effectively resolves the concerns raised about the da Vinci system.

Expansion of procedures

While Intuitive Surgical's robotic systems have gained significant traction in specific surgical areas, considerable opportunities remain for their adoption in a wider array of procedures. Currently, general surgery and gynecology represent the most prevalent applications of all procedures performed with da Vinci systems, respectively. The company anticipates a broadening of this usage to encompass more diverse surgical interventions, which is expected to drive increased demand for their systems overall.

Competition entry

Currently, Intuitive Surgical experiences limited competition within the robotic surgery market, largely due to substantial barriers for new entrants and the company's extensive portfolio of over 1,000 patents worldwide. However, as these patents begin to lapse, the financial and technical hurdles for entering the market could diminish, potentially leading to a more competitive environment. While we do not anticipate any single competitor will unseat Intuitive Surgical from its leading position, increased competition could still exert some pressure on pricing strategies, which in turn might impact their profit margins.