Hyatt Hotels (H) Last Update 4/4/25
Related: WYNN LVS MGM
Hyatt Hotels
$130
Trefis Price
N/A
$104
Market
 
DriversBridge
#%
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Hyatt Hotels Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Third-Party Owned Hotels constitute 78% of the Trefis price estimate for Hyatt Hotels's stock.
  2. Distribution constitutes 17% of the Trefis price estimate for Hyatt Hotels's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Hyatt's Q4 2024 Results

The hotel chain posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.42, missing the consensus estimate of $0.79 by $0.37. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.72 billion. Comparable system-wide hotels RevPAR growth was 5.0% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period in 2023. Net rooms growth was 7.8% for the full year 2024, in line with the company's outlook.

For the full year 2024, Hyatt reported net income of $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion. The company returned over $1.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the year.

Outlook

Looking ahead, Hyatt projects 2025 full year comparable system-wide hotels RevPAR growth of 2.0% to 4.0% and net rooms growth of 6.0% to 7.0%. The company expects 2025 adjusted EBITDA between $1.1 billion and $1.15 billion.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Hyatt Hotels value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Hyatt Hotels:

Hyatt Hotels

  • Average Daily Rates for Owned & Leased Hotels: ADR declined from $238 in 2019 to $174 in 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic although it grew to about $279 in 2023. In 2024, this metric stood at $302. Going forward, the uptrend will continue due to Hyatt's brand strength and ability to manage hotel operations efficiently. We expect to metric to grow to about $360 by the end of forecast period. If the metric grows to over $550 instead, we believe there could be a potential upside of 5% to the Trefis price estimate.

  • Hyatt Hotels Management and Franchise Revenues For Reimbursed Costs: Revenues for reimbursed costs of third party owned hotel operations have risen from $2.6 billion in 2022 to $3.4 billion in 2024. Trefis expects the metric to grow to about $5 billion by 2031. However, if growth comes in stronger than expected with sales rising to over $5.6 billion, there could be a 10% upside to our price estimate.

For additional details, select a driver above or a division from the interactive Trefis split for Hyatt Hotels at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Hyatt Hotels is a hospitality company that offers full-service hotels and resorts, select-service hotels, all-inclusive resorts, and other properties, including timeshare, fractional, and other forms of residential and vacation units. The company also offers distribution and destination management services via its subsidiary ALG Vacations. Mr & Mrs Smith is the company's boutique and luxury global travel platform. At December 31, 2024, Hyatt's hotel portfolio consisted of 1,442 hotels and all-inclusive resorts (347,301 rooms).

SOURCES OF VALUE

We believe that the management of third-party-owned hotels is the primary source of value for Hyatt because:

Significantly Higher Margins As Compared To Owned Hotels

The profitability of managed and franchised hotels increases significantly if we ignore reimbursement costs. Moreover, for third-party-owned hotels, the capital expenditures are borne by the property owner. On the contrary, Hyatt's owned property business is capital-intensive due to the high costs involved in developing and maintaining new properties.

Hyatt Hotels has a wide presence around the globe. It operates in 78 countries and most of the populous urban centers worldwide. These properties also provide a platform to expand into other markets and geographies. The management and franchising model works well for most hotel players, and they focus on expanding the same. Thus, the third-party-owned hotels will continue to drive the growth for the company in the foreseeable future.

KEY TRENDS

Hyatt's pivot towards a fee-based model

Nearly 80% of Hyatt's earnings are contributed by the management & franchise business, which is largely fee-based. The company estimates that 77% of its earnings over 2024 came from asset-light businesses. This should bode well for the company's cash flows and margins in the long run.

Social Media Is A Big Deal For Brands

The rapid expansion of social media has significantly enhanced the relationship between the hospitality industry and its guests. The reputation, service quality, staff, etc., are determined through various social media platforms, including online travel forums and customer-led ranking sites such as Tripadvisor.

According to a report by a leading hotel chain, brands are mentioned 3.3 billion times in 2.4 million online conversations in the U.S. daily. The report also mentioned that over 33% of the people surveyed consider comments on TripAdvisor to be of great importance in selecting a luxury hotel. This is one of the reasons why the hotel sector is investing heavily in new technologies and building an online social media strategy.

Rise In International Travel

The recovery in global economies and sophisticated financial markets of emerging economies will drive international visitation. The U.S., in particular, will benefit from the Discover America campaign, which will drive the average guest spend as well as the occupancy levels of the hotels. Leisure demand from other countries, such as China, will stimulate global demand for hospitality. The globalization of travel will prove to be a massive force for the hospitality industry. Hyatt Hotels will benefit from its diverse brands and properties spread across the globe.