VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Old Navy Stores constitute 53% of the Trefis price estimate for Gap Inc.'s stock.
2. Gap Stores constitute 21% of the Trefis price estimate for Gap Inc.'s stock.
3. Banana Republic Stores constitute 12% of the Trefis price estimate for Gap Inc.'s stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

1. Gap Tops Q2 Estimates
   • The company earned a profit of $0.54 per share, up from $0.34 in the same quarter last year and 13 cents better than expectations. Total sales were up 4.8% to $3.72B, $90M more than the street projected.
   • Comparable sales for the quarter rose 3% in Q2. By channel, online sales rose 7%, representing 33% of total sales. By brand, Old Navy outperformed with a 5% increase in sales, followed by +3% for the Gap banner, while Banana Republic sales were unchanged year-over-year. Athleta sales were down 4%.
   • Gross margin expanded by 500 basis points to 42.6%, while lower commodity costs and improved promotional activity drove the merchandise margin up 410 basis points. On the balance sheet, cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments increased 59% to $2.1B, while inventory was down 5% year-over-year.

Note: Gap's FY'23 ended on February 3, 2024. Q2 FY'24 refers to the quarter that ended on August 3, 2024.

2. Raise FY'24 Profit Margin Outlook

Gap is reaffirming FY24 sales guidance to be up slightly from $14.9 billion in FY'23 and increasing its gross margin outlook to expand by 200 basis points to 40.8% from initial guidance of +150 basis points. For Q3, Gap expects sales to be up slightly, gross margin to expand by 50-75 basis points from 41.3% in FY23, and operating expense to be unchanged at $1.3B.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Gap is a global specialty retailer offering clothing, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children. It markets its products under the Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic, Athleta, GapKids, babyGap, and Intermix brands.

Gap operates stores in North America and several countries in Europe and Asia. It is one of the few U.S. apparel retailers that have a decent international presence. The company also sells its products online through web-based stores for each of its brands. The company has recently changed its reporting structure due to its adoption of omnichannel retailing. It no longer reports separate e-commerce revenues but includes them in individual brands' revenues. In addition to this, Gap has franchise agreements with unaffiliated franchisees to operate Gap, Old Navy, and Banana Republic stores in many countries.

The retailer operates three different brands for three main demographics: Old Navy for cost and fashion-conscious teenagers, Gap for young adults, and Banana Republic for more affluent and relatively older customers.

KEY TRENDS

Development of omni-channel platform

An omnichannel platform enables retailers to engage customers irrespective of the shopping channel they prefer. Gap Inc. launched its ship-from-store service, which allows the fulfillment of online orders through store inventories. This service enables the company to offer a greater variety of merchandise over the Internet but also helps it improve delivery responsiveness and store traffic. The company also launched "find in store" and "reserve in store" services to enhance its customer service and integrate the digital and store channels. The "find in store" function informs the customers where to find the nearest stores and the "reserve in store" service allows them to reserve up to five items online to try in stores. Since buying clothes is a personal experience and online shopping provides convenience, this offers customers the best of both channels.

Online retail sales in the U.S. have grown at a rapid pace over the past several years, thanks to growing internet usage in the country. Internet penetration in the U.S. increased from 91% in 2021 to 94% in 2023. Furthermore, facilitated by the convenience of constant access, 92% of teens today go online daily, including 24% who are online constantly, according to a study conducted by Pew Research Center. Over half of the teens (aged 13 to 17 years) go online several times a day, aided by the presence of smartphones, which are available to nearly three-quarters of teens. Smartphone usage will only increase in the future, and this will likely result in a steady rise in online sales.

Efforts to gain market share in the U.S.

While Gap Inc. is consolidating its main brand networks in North America, it is looking at other ways to gain a share in the U.S. apparel market. The retailer is relying on smaller brands for this purpose, such as Athleta, Intermix, GapKids, and babyGap, to grow its business in North America. Through Athleta, Gap Inc. offers performance-driven sports apparel and footwear for women. The company expects store openings to be focused on Athleta and Old Navy.

Optimizing Store Fleet

Gap Inc. has continued the process of optimizing its store count, including reducing its exposure to low-productivity stores. The company has also seen an opportunity for increasing the store count of Athleta, Old Navy, and store closures of some of the non-performing Banana Republic and Gap stores.