VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. North American Gold Mines (Barrick Nevada, Pueblo Viejo Mine, Dominican Republic) constitute 60% of the Trefis price estimate for Barrick Gold's stock.
2. Other Gold Mines constitute 26% of the Trefis price estimate for Barrick Gold's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

1. Q2 2024 Earnings

Barrick Gold posted a better-than-expected set of Q2 2024 earnings. Revenue rose by 12% year-over-year to $3.16 billion, while earnings came in at $370 million, up almost 21% compared to last year driven by higher gold prices and better cost management. However, gold production for the quarter decreased 4% year-over-year.

2. Recent surge in gold prices

Gold prices have been on the upswing, rising from around $1,830 per ounce at the beginning of January 2023 to over $2,400 per ounce as of late July 2024. The gains come amid easing inflation and expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Barrick Gold's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the Trefis price estimate for the company's stock:

Gold shipments from Barrick Nevada

• Barrick Nevada Shipments: Shipments from Barrick's Nevada operations have declined from almost 4 million ounces in 2019 to under 3.3 million ounces in 2023 due to the impact of planned maintenance at some sites. We expect the metric to stabilize at about 3.6 million ounces by 2030.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD) is one of the world's largest gold mining companies and is headquartered in Toronto. The company holds ownership interests in thirteen producing gold mines located in Argentina, Canada, Côte d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Dominican Republic, Mali, Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, and the United States. Barrick's three copper mines are located in Zambia, Chile, and Saudi Arabia. As of December 31, 2023, Barrick’s proven and probable gold reserves stood at 77 million ounces.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Gold as the primary source of revenue

Gold mining is the most important division for Barrick Gold in terms of revenues and profits. In 2023, the company generated around $10.3 billion in revenues from the sale of gold and $800 million from copper sales.

KEY TRENDS

Rising demand for gold from emerging economies

Demand for gold is expected to be quite robust from major emerging economies. Rapidly growing middle-class populations and rising incomes in these countries, particularly China and India - the world's largest gold consumers - are expected to result in a sustained jewelry and investment demand for gold.

Barrick is bolstering copper production

Barrick is moving to scale up its copper production in a big way given that the metal is expected to see higher demand as the global economy moves to green energy solutions and electric vehicles. Barrick could also have an edge over other miners in the copper space, considering that copper often occurs alongside gold in large-scale deposits.