Boeing stock has seen a sharp decline after an incident in which the cabin side panel detached midair on Alaska Air (Boeing 737 Max 9) flight 1282 on January 9, 2024. Following the incident, the Federal Aviation Administration grounded Boeing 737 Max 9 aircraft. Later, in February 2024, one of Boeing’s suppliers found a new problem with fuselages on several unfinished 737 Max planes.
These incidents have resulted in uncertainties and a very likely delay in deliveries in 2024. Boeing failed in 33 of 89 product audits conducted by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on 737 Max airplanes.
The fuselage is made by one of Boeing’s suppliers — Spirit AeroSystems. Boeing reportedly plans to acquire Spirit AeroSystems to address the quality issues and get on track for its production target of 600 737 aircraft by 2026. This compares with 396 737 aircraft it delivered in 2023.
With mounting pressure on the ongoing 737 MAX issue, Boeing CEO – Dave Calhoun – will step down by the end of this year.
BA stock has faced a notable decline of 30% from levels of $215 in early January 2021 to around $150 in mid-September 2024, vs. an increase of about 50% for the S&P 500 over this period.
However, the decrease in BA stock has been far from consistent. Returns for the stock were -6% in 2021, -5% in 2022, and 37% in 2023. In comparison, returns for the S&P 500 have been 27% in 2021, -19% in 2022, and 24% in 2023 — indicating that BA underperformed the S&P in 2021.
Boeing reported its Q2 2024 results on July 31, 2024. Total revenue of $16.9 billion was down 15% y-o-y, primarily due to lower 737 deliveries. The company delivered 92 airplanes in Q2, reflecting a 32% y-o-y decline. Its loss of $2.90 on a per share and adjusted basis compares with a loss per share of $0.82 in the prior-year quarter.
Per Boeing's commercial market outlook, global passenger traffic will likely grow at an annual rate of 4% over the next two decades.
The company estimates that there will be a strong demand for single-aisle aircraft. Interestingly, Boeing has an order backlog of over 6,000 planes, with 737 MAX accounting for most of the units.
Below are the key drivers of Boeing's value that present opportunities for upside or downside:
Commercial Airplanes EBITDA Margin
Commercial Airplanes EBITDA margin stood at -1% in 2023. We expect the division's margins to increase to 16% over the Trefis forecast period. If margins were to expand at a slower pace to 8% by the end of our forecast period due to the stiff price competition from Airbus and development or delivery delays of 737-MAX, there could be a potential downside of about 15% to Trefis price estimate for Boeing's stock.
Boeing's New Airplane Deliveries
Boeing commercial aircraft deliveries declined from 748 in 2016 to 157 in 2020 due to the grounding of the 737 MAX and the impact of the pandemic. However, it rebounded to 528 in 2023, and we forecast it to rise to over 800 by the end of our review period in 2030.
If, however, due to the ongoing issues with Boeing to ramp up its production, deliveries expand only to 600, there could be a potential downside of about 15% to Trefis price estimate for Boeing's stock.
Boeing is one of the two major manufacturers of 100+ seat aircraft for the global commercial airplane industry. The other major airplane maker in this category is Airbus. Boeing designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and services commercial jetliners such as the single-aisle 737, and twin-aisle 777, 787, and 747.
Apart from commercial aviation, Boeing has a defense contracting business. The company is the second-largest defense contractor of the U.S. government after Lockheed Martin.
To promote sales of its commercial airplanes, Boeing offers leasing solutions to airlines through its Boeing Capital Corporation (BCC) segment.
The commercial airplanes division is the largest contributor to Boeing's total value. The key factors responsible for this are:
Aircraft manufacturing requires significant upfront capital and research and development expenditure. Boeing has made these investments over the last several decades to establish itself as one of the largest commercial aircraft manufacturers.
A large number of airlines in the world operate Boeing airplanes. These airlines have a long, established relationship with Boeing as their airplane provider.
Other companies, including Embraer, Bombardier, Comac, Russian Irkut, and Mitsubishi are looking to play a larger role as commercial airplane manufacturers face enormous competition from both Boeing and Airbus. In contrast, airlines have a working relationship with Boeing and Airbus for most of their airplanes. This track record and existing relationships provide both Boeing and Airbus with a significant competitive advantage over smaller and relatively new airplane makers.
A decline in passenger and cargo traffic due to the global recession in 2009 adversely impacted revenues and margins for commercial airlines the world over. This, in turn, affected aircraft demand. Similarly, post-pandemic, the global economy has steadily grown, and airlines have seen their revenue rise and improve margins. This has enabled airlines to place orders for new airplanes, growing results for airplane makers such as Boeing.
However, there are fears of a potential recession in the U.S., which may result in air carriers and governments delaying or canceling orders for new aircraft.
Low-cost airlines or carriers (LCC) are fast expanding around the world. They provide an alternative to other modes of transportation, such as railways.
LCCs typically use single-aisle aircraft such as Boeing's 737 and Airbus' A320. The growth of LCCs is primarily a consequence of increased liberalization in the commercial aviation industry that has reduced entry barriers for private players. This is especially true in the emerging countries of the Asia-Pacific region, where liberalization driven by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has boosted the growth of many LCCs. We expect regulatory hurdles in the commercial airline industry to continue to decline the world over, paving for the growth of LCCs. And the expansion of LCCs will boost demand for single-aisle airplanes.
Unions represent over 20% of Boeing's total workforce. The company experienced a workforce stoppage in September 2024, due to the union strike. There were estimates of $3 billion impact to Boeing for a 30-day strike. Similar stoppages in the future have the potential to significantly impact the business through production delays and the development of Boeing's products and services.
Boeing generates about 80% of its defense, space, and security (DSS) division revenues from the US government through its various agencies such as the Department of Defense and NASA. Owing to this high degree of dependence on the U.S. government, Boeing is vulnerable to any cuts in the government's military spending.
