VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS
- Computing and Graphics constitute 63% of the Trefis price estimate for AMD's stock.
- Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom constitutes 36% of the Trefis price estimate for AMD's stock.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
Q4 2024 Earnings
AMD reported Q4 results that were ahead of expectations. Revenue for the quarter stood at $7.7 billion, up 24% year over year, driven by stronger sales in the data center segment. Earnings stood at $1.09 per share, up 42% year over year.
AMD is doubling down on AI-focused chips
Following the launch of OpenAI's generative AI tool ChatGPT, major tech players have been doubling down on the artificial intelligence space. This has turned attention back to companies that make graphics processing units, which are becoming the de-facto chips for running AI-related workloads. AMD recently unveiled the MI300X chip, which is targeted specifically at large language model training and inference for generative AI workloads.
POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE
Below are the key drivers of AMD's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for AMD:
Computing & Graphics
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AMD's Computing & Graphics Revenue: We estimate that AMD's Computing and Graphics revenues will grow from around $15.2 billion in 2024 to over $48 billion by 2031, driven by higher GPU sales. However, if the metric grows to over $55 billion, there could be a 15% upside to our price estimate.
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AMD Enterprise, Embedded & Semi-Custom Revenues: We estimate the Enterprise, Embedded & Semi-Custom revenue to increase from $10.6 billion in 2024 to over $27 billion by the end of our review period. However, there is a possibility that we are underestimating the gains from this segment, given AMD's expansion and deals with new clients, such as Cisco, and HP Enterprise. If AMD's Enterprise, Embedded & Semi-Custom revenues increase to $35 billion by the end of our review period, there will be a more than 20% upside in our valuation for the company.
For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for AMD at the top of the page.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
AMD manufactures and markets microprocessors used in servers, desktop PCs, and notebook PCs. Microprocessors are a PC's Central Processing Unit (CPU) or the "brain" behind the computer. A microprocessor is the single most important component that drives computer power and performance. Additionally, AMD manufactures Graphics Processor Units (GPUs), which are used in PCs to process information for graphics displays.
AMD also manufactures embedded processors used in products that require high-to-moderate levels of performance, where key features include low cost, mobility, low power, and small form factor. The company also makes System-on-Chip (SoC) products and technology for game consoles.
SOURCES OF VALUE
We believe that 'Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom', and Computing & Graphics divisions are the two key segments within AMD for the following reasons:
New Growth Markets
To reduce its exposure to the declining traditional PC market, AMD intends to derive an increasing proportion of its revenue from high-growth markets, including GPUs for AI workloads, semi-custom, ultra-low power clients, professional graphics, dense servers, and embedded solutions.
AMD believes that it is effectively positioned to drive the next revolution in gaming and now powers all major next-generation consoles including Nintendo Switch, Sony's PlayStation, and Microsoft's Xbox One.
KEY TRENDS
Demand for GPUs will surge driven by AI
Graphics processing units, or GPUs, are becoming the de-facto chips for running generative AI workloads, and AMD has been a long-standing player in this space. While AMD's GPUs have typically been used more for gaming and professional applications compared to Nvidia's chips, which are the go-to GPUs for accelerated computing applications, AMD is also now focusing on winning over the AI market.
Expansion Into The Server Market
AMD has been making solid progress in the server market with its EPYC Server Processors, which are finding favor with customers, due to their strong performance, scalability, and value pricing.
On-going Server Virtualization
Server virtualization is essentially server consolidation that enables the running of multiple applications on a single server instead of on multiple servers. Server virtualization is driving a mixed shift to higher-end servers, which require multi-core processor servers that tend to be more complex and more expensive than traditional single-core processors.
Convergence of Graphics & Processing
AMD and Intel have moved away from the idea of integrated graphics. The newer chips pack GPU within the CPU, leading to much better graphics performance than one can get from traditional integrated graphics.
Growth in The Internet-of-Things (IoT) Market
IoT includes all other computing devices apart from PCs, tablets, and smartphones. IoT is still at a nascent stage, but it is expanding fast and is considered to be the next big growth driver in the semiconductor industry after smartphones and tablets.
