How Will Bristol Myers Squibb Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

April 22nd, 2025 by Trefis Team

Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) is scheduled to release its earnings report on Thursday, April 24, 2025. Examining its historical performance, BMY stock has shown a tendency for negative reactions following earnings announcements. Over the past five years, the stock has experienced a negative one-day return in 55% of cases, with a median decrease of 3.0% and a maximum single-day drop of 8.5%. 

For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns could offer a potential advantage, although the actual market response will hinge on how the reported results compare to consensus estimates and market expectations. Two primary strategies emerge: first, traders can assess the historical probability of a negative reaction and establish positions before the earnings release. Second, they can analyze the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns after the announcement to inform their trading decisions.

Current consensus estimates predict earnings per share of $1.51 on revenues of $10.73 billion. This contrasts with the loss per share of $4.40 on sales of $11.87 billion reported in the same period last year. Looking at the drivers, Bristol Myers Squibb’s growth portfolio, including drugs like Reblozyl, Opdualag, Breyanzi, and Camzyos, is expected to perform strongly. However, the company’s legacy portfolio is anticipated to exert downward pressure on overall sales due to the continued decline in sales of Revlimid and Sprycel.

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

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Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

  • There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
  • Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • Median of the 9 positive returns = 2.2%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -3.0%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

BMY 1D, 5D, and 21D post-earnings return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

BMY Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Bristol-Myers Squibb stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Bristol-Myers Squibb. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

BMY Correlation With Peer Earnings

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