How Will Boeing Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Boeing (NYSE:BA) is scheduled to release its earnings report on Wednesday, April 23, 2025. Historically, the stock’s reaction to its earnings has been evenly split. Over the past five years, Boeing has shown a positive one-day return following earnings 50% of the time, with a median positive return of 1.7% and a maximum single-day gain of 8.7%.
For event-driven traders, while historical trends indicate an equal probability of positive or negative stock movement, understanding these patterns remains valuable. Two potential strategies exist:
- Pre-Earnings Positioning: Analyze the historical odds and establish a position before the earnings announcement.
- Post-Earnings Analysis: Examine the correlation between the immediate stock reaction and medium-term returns following the earnings release, and then position accordingly.
Image by Lynn Greyling from Pixabay
The consensus forecast anticipates a loss of $1.28 per share on sales of $19.9 billion for the upcoming quarter. This compares to a loss of $1.13 per share on sales of $16.6 billion in the same period last year. Notably, Boeing’s commercial aircraft deliveries have significantly increased to 130 in the first quarter of this year, up from 83 in the prior-year period. This surge in deliveries suggests substantial revenue growth. However, ongoing challenges and increased operating costs are likely to result in an expanded loss for the quarter.
Beyond the financial figures, the management’s commentary on the outlook within the current macroeconomic environment will be crucial, particularly regarding tariffs and the escalating trade tensions with China. China’s reported request for its airlines to halt accepting Boeing deliveries in response to U.S. tariffs adds a layer of complexity. Furthermore, Boeing’s reliance on imported components makes it especially susceptible to trade disruptions, potentially leading to higher costs and decreased production efficiency.
Boeing’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 1.7%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -3.4%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
BA observed 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
BA Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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