How Will CSX Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

April 14th, 2025 by Trefis Team

CSX Corporation (NASDAQ:CSX) is scheduled to release its earnings on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. Analysts anticipate earnings of $0.37 per share on sales of $3.46 billion for this quarter. This represents a decrease compared to the prior year quarter, which saw earnings of $0.46 per share on sales of $3.68 billion. The anticipated decline in performance is likely due to ongoing weakness in coal freight and a general softening of average revenue per carload. However, CSX stock has often reacted positively to earnings reports. Over the past five years, the stock has experienced a one-day positive return in 65% of instances following earnings releases, with a median return of 2.6% and a maximum return of 4.3%.

The company has $54 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $15 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $5.4 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.5 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader. Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.

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See earnings reaction history of all stocks

CSX’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

  • There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
  • Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • Median of the 13 positive returns = 2.6%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -3.2%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

CSX observed 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

CSX Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

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