How Will JB Hunt Transport Services Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

April 10th, 2025 by Trefis Team

JB Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ:JBHT) is scheduled to release its earnings report on Tuesday, April 15, 2025. For this upcoming quarter, consensus estimates predict earnings of $1.15 per share on sales of $2.91 billion. This compares to the prior-year quarter’s earnings of $1.22 per share on sales of $2.94 billion. Looking at the company’s overall financial picture, JBHT currently has a market capitalization of $14 billion. Over the last twelve months, it generated $12 billion in revenue, achieving operational profitability with $831 million in operating profits and a net income of $571 million.

Despite a significant recovery following President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, JBHT stock is still down 17% year-to-date. While this decline is primarily attributed to the broader market downturn, these market concerns appear to be amplified by wider economic anxieties. Specifically, President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on goods from over 100 countries has heightened worries about the potential negative impact on the U.S. economy and consumer spending. Consequently, the combination of softening demand and broader economic uncertainty presents a challenging outlook for the logistics industry.

While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader. There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

JB Hunt Transport Services’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

  • There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
  • However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • Median of the 11 positive returns = 1.4%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -1.8%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

JBHT observed 1D, 5D, and 21D eturns post earnings

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

JBHT Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

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