How Will Lamb Weston Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

March 27th, 2025 by Trefis Team

Lamb Weston (NYSE:LW), a leading global producer of frozen French fries, is scheduled to release its earnings report on Thursday, April 3, 2025. Analysts anticipate the company will report earnings of $0.88 per share on revenues of $1.49 billion. This compares to the prior-year quarter, where Lamb Weston reported earnings of $1.20 per share on sales of $1.46 billion. The company has $7.7 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.3 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $742 Mil in operating profits and net income of $367 Mil. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

Lamb Weston’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

  • There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
  • Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.6%, and median of the 10 negative returns =-11%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

LW observed 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

LW Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Lamb Weston stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Lamb Weston. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

LW Correlation With Peer Earnings

 

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