How Will McCormick Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

March 21st, 2025 by Trefis Team

McCormick (NYSE:MKC), a food company renowned for its spices, seasoning mixes, and condiments, is scheduled to announce its earnings results on Tuesday, March 25, 2025 (the company’s fiscal year ends in November). Analysts anticipate the company will report earnings of $0.64 per share on revenues of $1.61 billion. This compares to the earnings of $0.63 per share and sales of $1.6 billion that McCormick reported in the same quarter last year. Potential headwinds for the company’s overall performance may arise from a deceleration in demand in the Asia Pacific region.

McCormick has $22 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.7 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $789 Mil. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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McCormick’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

  • There are 15 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 6 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
  • Notably, this percentage increases to 44% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • Median of the 6 positive returns = 4.0%, and median of the 9 negative returns =-3.2%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

MKC observed 1D, 5D, 21D returns post earnings

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

MKC Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Systematic Strategies & Rules-Based Wealth Management

Trefis runs systematic portfolio strategies that incorporate risk control through a combination of high-quality picks and active hedges. We’ve partnered with Empirical Asset Management, a rules-based wealth manager, to make these strategies available to investors. If you’re interested in learning more about Trefis strategies or Empirical check out this link.