Tearsheet

Shopify (SHOP)


Market Price (3/6/2026): $135.05 | Market Cap: $175.9 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Shopify (SHOP)


Market Price (3/6/2026): $135.05
Market Cap: $175.9 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 93x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 86x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 143x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.0 Bil
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more.
Short seller report
3  Key risks
SHOP key risks include [1] its large merchant base of small businesses, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.0 Bil
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 93x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 86x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 143x
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%
5 Short seller report
6 Key risks
SHOP key risks include [1] its large merchant base of small businesses, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Shopify (SHOP) stock has lost about 15% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Outlook for a lower Free Cash Flow (FCF) margin in Q1 2026 dampened investor sentiment.

Despite reporting strong Q4 2025 revenue growth of 31% year-over-year to $3.67 billion and a 19% free cash flow margin, Shopify's guidance for Q1 2026 projected a free cash flow margin in the low-to-mid teens, a decline from Q1 2025 levels. This anticipated contraction in profitability spooked investors and contributed to the stock's downturn.

2. High valuation concerns made the stock vulnerable to any perceived weakness.

Shopify's stock was trading at a high forward earnings multiple of 65.6x as of March 4, 2026. This elevated valuation implied high expectations for the company's performance, leaving little room for error. The prospect of declining net income and free cash flow margins, as indicated by the Q1 2026 outlook, led to a re-evaluation by the market.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -15.0% change in SHOP stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -36.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)113020253052026Change
Stock Price ($)158.64134.79-15.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)10,69611,5568.0%
Net Income Margin (%)16.7%10.7%-36.0%
P/E Multiple115.8142.623.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,3001,303-0.2%
Cumulative Contribution-15.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 3/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SHOP-15.0% 
Market (SPY)-0.3%44.8%
Sector (XLK)-2.0%48.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -4.6% change in SHOP stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)83120253052026Change
Stock Price ($)141.28134.79-4.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)10,01411,55615.4%
Net Income Margin (%)23.4%10.7%-54.5%
P/E Multiple78.2142.682.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2981,303-0.4%
Cumulative Contribution-4.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 3/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SHOP-4.6% 
Market (SPY)5.9%58.2%
Sector (XLK)7.0%57.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 20.3% change in SHOP stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 98.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820253052026Change
Stock Price ($)112.00134.7920.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8,88011,55630.1%
Net Income Margin (%)22.7%10.7%-53.1%
P/E Multiple71.7142.698.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2921,303-0.8%
Cumulative Contribution20.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2025 to 3/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SHOP20.3% 
Market (SPY)15.7%68.4%
Sector (XLK)24.9%69.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 227.6% change in SHOP stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 106.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)22820233052026Change
Stock Price ($)41.14134.79227.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,60011,556106.4%
P/S Multiple9.415.262.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2731,303-2.2%
Cumulative Contribution227.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2023 to 3/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SHOP227.6% 
Market (SPY)78.3%58.3%
Sector (XLK)109.5%55.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
SHOP Return22%-75%124%36%51%-19%15%
Peers Return-18%-53%38%26%-14%-17%-52%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%0%83%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SHOP Win Rate67%25%67%50%67%33% 
Peers Win Rate50%28%62%53%43%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%33% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SHOP Max Drawdown-8%-81%0%-33%-28%-31% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-60%-14%-19%-30%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LSPD, ADBE, TOST, PYPL, AMZN. See SHOP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/5/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSHOPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-84.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven558.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,109 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven32 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven46 days120 days

Compare to LSPD, ADBE, TOST, PYPL, AMZN

In The Past

Shopify's stock fell -84.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -84.8% loss requires a 558.6% gain to breakeven.

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About Shopify (SHOP)

Shopify Inc., a commerce company, provides a commerce platform and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company's platform enables merchants to displays, manages, markets, and sells its products through various sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, pop-up shops, social media storefronts, native mobile apps, buy buttons, and marketplaces; and enables to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, new buyers and build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics and reporting, manage cash, payments and transactions, and access financing. It also sells custom themes and apps, and registration of domain names; and merchant solutions, which include accepting payments, shipping and fulfillment, and securing working capital. The company was formerly known as Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Shopify Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Ottawa, Canada.

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  • WordPress for online stores.
  • The platform that lets businesses build their own Amazon-like store.

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  • Shopify Platform: An all-in-one e-commerce platform that enables businesses to create, run, and manage online stores across multiple sales channels. (Service: E-commerce Platform as a Service)
  • Shopify Payments: An integrated payment processing service that allows merchants to accept credit cards and other payment methods directly within their Shopify store. (Service: Payment Processing)
  • Shopify Shipping: Provides tools and partnerships for merchants to manage order fulfillment, print shipping labels, calculate rates, and track shipments efficiently. (Service: Shipping and Logistics)
  • Shopify POS (Point of Sale): A hardware and software solution that integrates online and physical store sales, allowing businesses to manage in-person transactions, inventory, and customer data from one system. (Product: Point-of-Sale System; Service: Retail Management)
  • Shopify Capital: Offers merchant cash advances and loans to eligible Shopify sellers, providing access to funding for business growth. (Service: Merchant Financing)
  • Shopify Balance: A financial account for merchants, offering features like business checking, spending cards, and cash flow insights without monthly fees. (Service: Business Banking)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Shopify (symbol: SHOP) primarily sells its e-commerce platform and related services to other companies, specifically merchants of all sizes. Therefore, its customers are businesses (B2B).

Shopify's business model involves providing subscription-based services and transaction processing to a vast and highly diversified customer base of millions of merchants globally. As such, no single customer or a small group of customers accounts for a significant portion of Shopify's revenue or gross merchandise volume (GMV). This means Shopify does not have "major customers" in the traditional sense of a concentrated revenue stream from a few large buyers.

However, Shopify does serve a wide range of businesses, from small startups to large enterprises utilizing its Shopify Plus platform. While these are illustrative examples of the types of businesses that use Shopify and contribute to its ecosystem, they are not presented as individually dominating its revenue. Some examples of public companies known to use Shopify's platform for their direct-to-consumer (D2C) operations include:

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  • Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
  • Cloudflare, Inc. (NET)

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Tobias Lütke, Chief Executive Officer

Tobias Lütke is the co-founder and CEO of Shopify, serving since April 2008. He began his career as a software developer in Germany and co-founded Snowdevil, an online snowboard shop, which later pivoted to become Shopify in 2006. Lütke learned to code by age 12 and left school at 16 to enter a computer programming apprenticeship. He built foundational technologies for Shopify, including contributions to the Ruby on Rails framework and creation of the Liquid and Active Merchant open source libraries. In 2022, he joined the board of directors for the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase.

Jeff Hoffmeister, Chief Financial Officer

Jeff Hoffmeister has served as Shopify's Chief Financial Officer since October 2022. He leads financial strategy, capital allocation, and investor relations. With over two decades in tech banking and finance, Hoffmeister previously co-headed Americas Tech Banking at Morgan Stanley. He played a pivotal role in numerous high-profile transactions, including initial public offerings (IPOs) and mergers and acquisitions, and notably led the IPO for Shopify. Prior to his tenure at Morgan Stanley, he was an audit manager at PwC. Hoffmeister holds a BSBA from Georgetown University and an MBA from the University of Virginia Darden School of Business.

Harley Finkelstein, President

Harley Finkelstein is the President of Shopify, having joined the company in 2010. He oversees Shopify's commercial teams, growth, and external affairs. Finkelstein founded his first company at age 17 while attending McGill University. He holds both a Juris Doctor and an MBA from the University of Ottawa, where he co-founded the JD/MBA Student Society and the Canadian MBA Oath. He is an advisor to Felicis Ventures and OMERS Ventures, and co-founded Firebelly, a modern high-end tea brand.

Mikhail Parakhin, Chief Technology Officer

Mikhail Parakhin joined Shopify as Chief Technology Officer in 2025. In this role, he is responsible for the company's technology strategy, fostering innovation to scale Shopify's infrastructure, and enhancing its platform capabilities for merchants and partners globally. Parakhin brings significant experience in software engineering and technology leadership, particularly in scaling complex digital platforms, with a background that includes senior technical roles and product-focused leadership.

Bobby Morrison, Chief Revenue Officer

Bobby Morrison is the Chief Revenue Officer at Shopify, a role he assumed in August 2022. He is responsible for driving the company's revenue growth and overseeing sales strategies. Morrison's expertise encompasses revenue management, digital transformation, and operational excellence. Before joining Shopify, he held significant leadership roles at companies such as Intuit, Microsoft, and Verizon, and has served as a board advisor for companies including DocuSign and Saviynt.

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The key risks to Shopify's business (SHOP) include:

  1. Economic Downturns and Shifting Consumer Spending: Shopify's performance is significantly influenced by the economic environment and consumer spending habits. During economic downturns or periods of high inflation, consumer spending on discretionary items may decrease, directly impacting the sales of Shopify's merchants. This, in turn, can affect Shopify's revenue, particularly given its large base of small and medium-sized businesses that are more sensitive to economic fluctuations. While Shopify has demonstrated resilience, persistent inflation and tariff impacts can constrain consumer demand and merchant margins.
  2. Intense Competition in the E-commerce Market: The e-commerce platform industry is highly competitive, with numerous established players and new entrants continually vying for market share. Shopify faces competition from large technology companies, other e-commerce platforms, and various software solutions, requiring continuous innovation to differentiate its offerings and maintain its leadership position.
  3. Evolving Regulatory and Compliance Landscape: Shopify and its merchants are subject to a complex and ever-changing array of legal and regulatory requirements, particularly concerning data privacy (such as GDPR and CCPA), consumer protection, advertising, and product compliance across different jurisdictions. Non-compliance with these regulations can lead to substantial fines, legal disputes, reputational damage, and operational disruptions for both Shopify and its merchants.

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The emergence of social media platforms (such as TikTok and Meta) evolving into full-fledged e-commerce marketplaces with integrated shopping features presents a clear emerging threat. These platforms, exemplified by TikTok Shop and Meta's aggressive push for native checkout within Facebook and Instagram Shops, leverage their massive user bases and engagement to enable merchants to sell directly within the social app environment. This model threatens to bypass or diminish the necessity for a separate, dedicated e-commerce storefront, which is Shopify's primary offering. As these platforms continue to expand their commerce functionalities and attract merchants with simplified selling processes and direct access to consumers, they could fragment the direct-to-consumer landscape and divert merchant investment and sales volume away from independent websites.

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Here are the addressable market sizes for Shopify's main products and services:

E-commerce Platform (Online Storefronts)

The global e-commerce market, which encompasses overall sales volume facilitated by platforms like Shopify, was estimated at USD 25.93 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 83.26 trillion by 2030. Another estimate places the global e-commerce market size at USD 26.8 trillion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 214.5 trillion by 2033. The U.S. e-commerce market alone is expected to be worth approximately USD 1.7 trillion by the end of 2027.

More specifically, the global e-commerce platform market, which refers to the software and services for establishing and operating online stores, was valued at USD 6.8 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 21.0 billion by 2032. Another report estimates the global e-commerce platform market size at USD 9.40 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 45.60 billion by 2033. Global spending on e-commerce platforms is projected to be USD 22.6 billion over the next 12 months (from March 2025), with the United States accounting for USD 8.4 billion (37%) of this spending.

Shopify's broader addressable market extends to the entire global retail economy, as it aims to be the "commerce layer of the internet" connecting both online and offline transactions. The global retail market is valued at USD 27.26 trillion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 36.91 trillion in 2030. Worldwide retail sales are projected to total USD 31.3 trillion in 2025 and exceed USD 37 trillion by 2030. Other estimates place the global retail industry market size at around USD 32 trillion in 2023, with a projection to grow to approximately USD 56.4 trillion by 2032.

Payment Processing (Shopify Payments)

Shopify Payments held about 15% of the global payment-processing software market in 2024. While the specific total addressable market size for payment processing software globally is not explicitly stated as a single figure in the provided context, Shopify Payments processed 62% of all Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) flowing through the Shopify platform as of Q3 2024, growing to 64% in Q1 2025. The total GMV processed through Shopify in 2024 was approximately USD 292.3 billion.

Point of Sale (Shopify POS)

Shopify POS enables merchants to manage in-store sales and synchronize them with their online stores, bridging the gap between digital and physical commerce. As such, its addressable market is intrinsically linked to the broader global retail market, which as noted above, is projected to reach over USD 37 trillion by 2030.

Shipping and Fulfillment (Shopify Fulfillment Network - SFN)

The Shopify Fulfillment Network (SFN) is specifically designed for North American merchants (United States and Canada) to streamline order fulfillment, returns, and product storage. SFN utilizes a network of fulfillment centers across the US and Canada. No specific total addressable market size for SFN or e-commerce fulfillment services for North America was explicitly identified in the provided information.

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Shopify (SHOP) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. Expansion of Merchant Solutions and Increased Take Rate: Shopify is projected to increase its revenue by expanding its Merchant Solutions offerings and enhancing its "take rate"—the percentage of Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) it captures as revenue. This growth is significantly driven by the continued penetration of Shopify Payments, which has reached 62% of GMV in Q3 2024. The company is also expanding value-added services such as Shop Pay, installment payments, merchant cash advances, and fraud prevention, further embedding its services into merchants' operations and increasing monetization of economic activity rather than just software seats.
  2. Global Market Expansion: International markets represent a substantial growth opportunity for Shopify. The company has demonstrated strong international revenue growth, with international merchants growing at a higher rate than those in North America. Shopify is actively focusing on localizing its tools and expanding its presence across various geographies to capture a larger share of the global e-commerce market, reducing its reliance on North American consumers.
  3. Integration of AI and Continuous Product Innovation: The introduction and increased adoption of new Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools, such as Shopify Magic and Sidekick AI, are expected to be significant revenue drivers. These AI-driven initiatives are enhancing merchant engagement, increasing traffic, and driving orders. Analysts and company management emphasize the potential for AI to create new revenue lines and improve operational efficiency for merchants, positioning Shopify for sustained strength.
  4. Growth in Merchant Base, Particularly Enterprise Adoption: Shopify aims to expand its merchant base, with a particular focus on attracting larger enterprise-level businesses through its Shopify Plus platform. The growth in the number of merchants, especially those utilizing Shopify Plus, directly contributes to subscription solutions revenue and overall Gross Merchandise Volume. Recent earnings reports highlight strong growth from both Standard and Plus merchants, indicating the platform's ability to cater to and grow with businesses of varying sizes.

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Share Repurchases

  • Shopify has not made significant dollar amount share repurchases over the last 3-5 years; some data indicates a net issuance of shares.
  • As of November 2025, Shopify is considered well-positioned for a potential future share buyback program due to its strong free cash flow generation and clean balance sheet.

Share Issuance

  • In September 2020, Shopify launched public offerings of Class A subordinate voting shares and convertible senior notes due 2025, with expected gross proceeds of US$990 million from the equity offering and US$800 million from the note offering, primarily to strengthen its balance sheet and fund growth strategies.
  • Shopify's net common equity issued/repurchased was $0.06 billion in 2023, $0.061 billion in 2024, and $235 million for the twelve months ending June 30, 2025, indicating ongoing issuance.
  • Stock-based compensation consistently contributes to share issuance, with projections of approximately $130 million for Q4 2025 and $120 million for Q1 2025.

Outbound Investments

  • On May 5, 2022, Shopify acquired Deliverr, an e-commerce fulfillment startup, for US$2.1 billion in cash and stock, though Shopify subsequently wound down its logistics business and sold Deliverr to Flexport in May 2023.
  • In August 2022, Shopify made a US$100 million strategic investment in Klaviyo, an e-commerce marketing automation platform, making it a recommended email solution partner for Shopify Plus.
  • Other acquisitions within the period include Dovetale (April 2022), Remix (October 2022), Checkout Blocks (June 2024), Threads (June 2024), and Vantage Discovery (March 2025).

Capital Expenditures

  • Shopify reported minimal capital expenditures of $6 million in Q3 2025, reflecting the asset-light nature of its platform.
  • Forecasted capital expenditures were $41.73 million in 2020, $50.79 million in 2021, $50.02 million in 2022, $39 million in 2023, $19 million in 2024, and $23.83 million in 2025.
  • The company's decision to wind down its logistics business and sell assets like Deliverr in May 2023 represented a strategic shift away from capital-intensive operations, reducing the need for significant logistics-related capital expenditures.

Better Bets vs. Shopify (SHOP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to SHOP.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BMI_2282026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K02282026BMIBadger MeterInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days
0.0%0.0%0.0%
VRNS_2282026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K02282026VRNSVaronis SystemsInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days
0.0%0.0%0.0%
ITRI_2272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02272026ITRIItronDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
FSLR_2272026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02272026FSLRFirst SolarDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
PEGA_2272026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02272026PEGAPegasystemsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
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Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SHOPLSPDADBETOSTPYPLAMZNMedian
NameShopify Lightspe.Adobe Toast PayPal Amazon.c. 
Mkt Price134.799.48281.7430.5147.64218.9491.22
Mkt Cap175.61.3117.517.944.42,344.880.9
Rev LTM11,5561,19023,7696,15333,172716,92417,662
Op Inc LTM1,885-1368,7063046,39679,9754,140
FCF LTM2,00779,8526085,5647,6953,786
FCF 3Y Avg1,503-648,2223365,51724,2633,510
CFO LTM2,0335710,0316616,416139,5144,224
CFO 3Y Avg1,531-358,4633856,236113,4463,884

Growth & Margins

SHOPLSPDADBETOSTPYPLAMZNMedian
NameShopify Lightspe.Adobe Toast PayPal Amazon.c. 
Rev Chg LTM30.1%12.9%10.5%24.1%4.3%12.4%12.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg27.3%19.9%10.5%31.3%6.4%11.7%15.8%
Rev Chg Q30.6%11.5%10.5%22.0%3.7%13.6%12.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.0%2.8%2.5%5.0%0.9%3.7%3.2%
Op Mgn LTM16.3%-11.5%36.6%4.9%19.3%11.2%13.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.7%-16.1%35.6%-0.4%18.0%9.4%10.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.6%-0.6%0.4%0.7%0.1%0.1%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM17.6%4.8%42.2%10.7%19.3%19.5%18.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.4%-4.3%39.1%7.2%19.7%17.5%16.9%
FCF/Rev LTM17.4%0.6%41.4%9.9%16.8%1.1%13.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.1%-7.0%37.9%6.2%17.4%3.9%11.1%

Valuation

SHOPLSPDADBETOSTPYPLAMZNMedian
NameShopify Lightspe.Adobe Toast PayPal Amazon.c. 
Mkt Cap175.61.3117.517.944.42,344.880.9
P/S15.21.14.92.91.33.33.1
P/EBIT93.1-2.013.159.06.623.518.3
P/E142.6-1.916.552.58.530.223.3
P/CFO86.423.111.727.16.916.820.0
Total Yield0.7%-52.6%6.1%1.9%11.8%3.3%2.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.0%-2.2%4.4%1.8%8.2%1.3%1.5%
D/E0.00.00.10.00.20.10.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.30.0-0.1-0.00.0-0.0

Returns

SHOPLSPDADBETOSTPYPLAMZNMedian
NameShopify Lightspe.Adobe Toast PayPal Amazon.c. 
1M Rtn13.0%-3.8%3.6%8.0%14.6%-8.2%5.8%
3M Rtn-17.0%-16.4%-14.3%-13.3%-22.6%-4.4%-15.3%
6M Rtn-7.1%-19.9%-18.2%-25.8%-30.0%-7.1%-19.1%
12M Rtn27.0%-19.5%-37.6%-16.3%-31.1%5.1%-17.9%
3Y Rtn210.0%-38.3%-18.8%65.7%-37.6%133.5%23.5%
1M Excs Rtn14.3%-2.5%4.9%9.3%15.8%-7.0%7.1%
3M Excs Rtn-14.1%-15.2%-12.7%-9.8%-24.1%-6.6%-13.4%
6M Excs Rtn-9.8%-27.5%-25.1%-34.1%-37.2%-9.1%-26.3%
12M Excs Rtn14.3%-36.1%-55.1%-31.5%-47.2%-10.8%-33.8%
3Y Excs Rtn155.6%-110.1%-85.1%-10.8%-107.0%60.3%-47.9%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment8,8807,0605,6004,6122,929
Total8,8807,0605,6004,6122,929


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$134.79 
Market Cap ($ Bil)175.6 
First Trading Date05/21/2015 
Distance from 52W High-24.7% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$139.70$139.48
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA-3.5%-3.4%
 3M1YR
Volatility59.5%62.2%
Downside Capture315.42260.40
Upside Capture208.31243.43
Correlation (SPY)46.8%68.4%
SHOP Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta3.222.772.722.792.222.19
Up Beta-0.92-0.61-0.211.461.982.11
Down Beta4.383.903.423.242.142.29
Up Capture383%196%257%333%548%2554%
Bmk +ve Days9203170142431
Stock +ve Days12203065129391
Down Capture421%388%333%248%159%113%
Bmk -ve Days12213054109320
Stock -ve Days9213159121358

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with SHOP
SHOP30.5%62.4%0.67-
Sector ETF (XLK)29.0%27.2%0.9169.1%
Equity (SPY)19.2%19.1%0.7968.2%
Gold (GLD)74.7%26.1%2.121.4%
Commodities (DBC)19.3%17.1%0.8721.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.4%16.6%0.1535.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-16.6%45.6%-0.2637.9%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with SHOP
SHOP0.7%65.2%0.28-
Sector ETF (XLK)17.4%24.7%0.6360.1%
Equity (SPY)13.9%17.0%0.6560.1%
Gold (GLD)23.7%17.2%1.125.0%
Commodities (DBC)11.7%19.0%0.507.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.3%18.8%0.1938.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)9.5%56.9%0.3829.7%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with SHOP
SHOP50.9%58.6%0.95-
Sector ETF (XLK)22.5%24.2%0.8558.9%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7354.0%
Gold (GLD)14.8%15.6%0.796.6%
Commodities (DBC)9.0%17.6%0.4313.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.2%20.7%0.2632.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.3%66.8%1.0719.6%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date2132026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14.5 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 131202668.2%
Average Daily Volume23.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity1,302.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/11/2026-6.7%-4.4% 
11/4/2025-6.9%-8.1%-6.1%
8/6/202522.0%17.6%14.3%
5/8/2025-0.5%17.9%17.9%
2/11/20253.1%7.8%-19.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive232
# Negative322
Median Positive12.5%17.6%16.1%
Median Negative-6.7%-6.3%-12.8%
Max Positive22.0%17.9%17.9%
Max Negative-6.9%-8.1%-19.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/11/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/11/202510-K
09/30/202411/12/20246-K
06/30/202408/07/20246-K
03/31/202405/08/20246-K
12/31/202302/13/202440-F
09/30/202311/02/20236-K
06/30/202308/03/20236-K
03/31/202305/04/20236-K
12/31/202202/16/202340-F
09/30/202210/27/20226-K
06/30/202207/27/20226-K
03/31/202205/05/20226-K