Nike (NKE)
Market Price (10/8/2025): $68.95 | Market Cap: $101.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Nike (NKE)
Market Price (10/8/2025): $68.95
Market Cap: $101.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Investment Highlights
Attractive cash flow generation CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% | Expensive valuation multiples P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x |
Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 39% | Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
Attractive cash flow generation CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil |
Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 39% |
Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% |
Expensive valuation multiples P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x |
Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
NKE Stock
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
NKE Return | 41% | 19% | -29% | -6% | -29% | -7% | -24% |
Peers Return | -5% | 18% | -11% | 1% | 5% | 13% | 20% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
NKE Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 67% | |
Peers Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 33% | 31% | 44% | 60% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
NKE Max Drawdown | -38% | -10% | -50% | -23% | -34% | -29% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -4% | -29% | -17% | -20% | -24% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SKX, GIL, JL, JPO, LANV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/7/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | NKE | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -53.2% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 113.6% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -40.0% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 66.5% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -21.1% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -45.0% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 81.7% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Nike's stock fell -53.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -53.2% loss requires a 113.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Nike (NKE)
NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories worldwide. The company offers NIKE brand products in six categories, including running, NIKE basketball, the Jordan brand, football, training, and sportswear. It also markets products designed for kids, as well as for other athletic and recreational uses, such as American football, baseball, cricket, golf, lacrosse, skateboarding, tennis, volleyball, walking, wrestling, and other outdoor activities; and apparel with licensed college and professional team, and league logos, as well as sells sports apparel. In addition, the company sells a line of performance equipment and accessories comprising bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, and other equipment for sports activities; and various plastic products to other manufacturers. Further, it provides athletic and casual footwear, apparel, and accessories under the Jumpman trademark; and casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories under the Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell trademarks. Additionally, the company licenses agreements that permit unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell apparel, digital devices, and applications and other equipment for sports activities under NIKE-owned trademarks. It sells its products to footwear stores; sporting goods stores; athletic specialty stores; department stores; skate, tennis, and golf shops; and other retail accounts through NIKE-owned retail stores, digital platforms, independent distributors, licensees, and sales representatives. The company was formerly known as Blue Ribbon Sports, Inc. and changed its name to NIKE, Inc. in 1971. NIKE, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past trade ideas related to NKE and Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.8% | -11.8% | -11.8% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.3% | -3.3% | -3.3% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.2% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -6.2% | -6.2% | -6.2% |
03312025 | NKE | Nike | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.9% | 9.8% | -16.1% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.8% | -11.8% | -11.8% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.3% | -3.3% | -3.3% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.2% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -6.2% | -6.2% | -6.2% |
03312025 | NKE | Nike | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.9% | 9.8% | -16.1% |
See Trefis Trade Ideas for more.
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Nike
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 32.70 |
Mkt Cap | 55.5 |
Rev LTM | 24,863 |
Op Inc LTM | 2,031 |
FCF LTM | 1,633 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 2,576 |
CFO LTM | 1,956 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 3,034 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | -2.0% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
Rev Chg Q | 1.7% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
Op Mgn LTM | 13.4% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 9.7% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 55.5 |
P/S | 2.5 |
P/EBIT | 22.3 |
P/E | 29.0 |
P/CFO | 26.4 |
Total Yield | 4.3% |
Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
D/E | 0.2 |
Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -7.8% |
3M Rtn | -8.6% |
6M Rtn | 38.8% |
12M Rtn | 20.0% |
3Y Rtn | -16.9% |
1M Excs Rtn | -10.5% |
3M Excs Rtn | -15.4% |
6M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
12M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -100.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
9/30/2025 | 6.4% | ||
6/26/2025 | 15.2% | 22.4% | 25.2% |
3/20/2025 | -5.5% | -8.4% | -21.9% |
12/19/2024 | -0.2% | -0.9% | -3.6% |
10/1/2024 | -6.8% | -9.4% | -14.2% |
6/27/2024 | -20.0% | -19.9% | -21.9% |
3/21/2024 | -6.9% | -6.8% | -6.6% |
12/21/2023 | -11.8% | -11.4% | -17.8% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 10 | 10 | 10 |
# Negative | 14 | 14 | 14 |
Median Positive | 7.7% | 7.5% | 10.0% |
Median Negative | -6.5% | -7.9% | -6.6% |
Max Positive | 15.5% | 22.4% | 25.2% |
Max Negative | -20.0% | -19.9% | -21.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
8312025 | 10012025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
5312025 | 7172025 | 10-K 5/31/2025 |
2282025 | 4032025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
11302024 | 1032025 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
8312024 | 10072024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
5312024 | 7252024 | 10-K 5/31/2024 |
2292024 | 4042024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
11302023 | 1052024 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
8312023 | 10062023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
5312023 | 7202023 | 10-K 5/31/2023 |
2282023 | 4062023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
11302022 | 1052023 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
8312022 | 10062022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
5312022 | 7212022 | 10-K 5/31/2022 |
2282022 | 4052022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
11302021 | 1062022 | 10-Q 11/30/2021 |
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