Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 9.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 9.8%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GAP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Gap Inc. (GAP) experienced a significant positive movement in its stock, attributed to a combination of strong financial performance, successful strategic initiatives, and positive market sentiment throughout 2025. Although the precise 20.6% movement cannot be pinpointed to a single event within the specified future timeframe, the following key factors from recent financial reports and strategic announcements explain such an upward trend based on the most recent available information.

1. Strong Earnings Performance Exceeding Analyst Expectations: The company reported robust financial results for both the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024 (reported in March 2025) and the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 (reported in May 2025). In Q4 2024, Gap Inc. reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.54, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $0.34. Similarly, Q1 2025 results showed EPS of $0.51, up from $0.41 in the prior year, with net sales increasing by 2%. One report indicated that Q1 2025 earnings beat expectations, leading to a 15.76% aftermarket stock surge.

2. Consistent Comparable Sales Growth and Market Share Gains: Gap Inc. demonstrated sustained positive comparable sales across its brands, achieving its ninth consecutive quarter of market share gains in Q1 2025. For the full fiscal year 2024, the company delivered positive comparable sales in all four quarters. Brands like Old Navy and Gap contributed strongly, with Old Navy gaining market share and Gap recording a 7% comparable sales growth in Q4 2024.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GAP Return16%-11%-33%97%16%17%85%
Peers Return18%24%-20%75%28%16%203%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GAP Win Rate58%67%33%58%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate55%53%42%65%55%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GAP Max Drawdown-68%-20%-53%-32%-11%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-6%-49%-19%-8%-30% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TJX, ROST, BURL, ANF, AEO. See GAP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGAPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-79.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven389.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-70.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven239.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven186 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-56.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven131.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven634 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-56.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven130.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven301 days1480 days

Compare to URBN, ANF, AEO, LB, GES


In The Past

Gap's stock fell -79.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2021. A -79.6% loss requires a 389.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Gap (GAP)

Interactive Breakdown

Gap Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Gap (GAP)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GAP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
GAP_12312016_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312016GAPGapDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.0%56.1%-3.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
GAP_12312016_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312016GAPGapDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.0%56.1%-3.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Gap

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GAPTJXROSTBURLANFAEOMedian
NameGap TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt.Abercrom.American. 
Mkt Price26.34156.14182.09266.09112.0925.46134.12
Mkt Cap9.8160.749.016.84.02.913.3
Rev LTM15,27958,97922,02711,1975,1815,34113,238
Op Inc LTM1,1456,6712,624786719290966
FCF LTM7794,4181,963-384385157582
FCF 3Y Avg1,0144,4761,88576468310741
CFO LTM1,2236,4212,7888376214241,030
CFO 3Y Avg1,4486,3052,6648716595301,159

Growth & Margins

GAPTJXROSTBURLANFAEOMedian
NameGap TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt.Abercrom.American. 
Rev Chg LTM0.3%4.5%3.7%6.8%7.6%-1.2%4.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.2%6.2%6.0%9.4%12.4%2.3%6.1%
Rev Chg Q3.0%7.5%10.4%7.1%6.8%5.7%6.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%1.8%2.5%1.6%1.6%1.4%1.6%
Op Mgn LTM7.5%11.3%11.9%7.0%13.9%5.4%9.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.5%10.9%11.7%6.3%12.3%6.6%8.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%0.1%-0.1%0.1%-0.7%-0.3%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM8.0%10.9%12.7%7.5%12.0%7.9%9.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.6%11.3%12.8%8.5%14.2%10.2%10.7%
FCF/Rev LTM5.1%7.5%8.9%-3.4%7.4%2.9%6.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.7%8.0%9.0%1.0%10.2%6.0%7.4%

Valuation

GAPTJXROSTBURLANFAEOMedian
NameGap TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt.Abercrom.American. 
Mkt Cap9.8160.749.016.84.02.913.3
P/S0.62.72.21.50.80.51.1
P/EBIT6.3--19.6--13.0
P/E11.531.423.529.97.713.918.7
P/CFO8.025.017.620.06.56.812.8
Total Yield8.7%4.3%5.3%3.3%13.0%8.8%7.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.1%1.1%0.0%0.0%1.6%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg17.5%--1.2%--9.3%
D/E0.7--0.4--0.5
Net D/E0.4--0.3--0.4

Returns

GAPTJXROSTBURLANFAEOMedian
NameGap TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt.Abercrom.American. 
1M Rtn8.4%6.7%12.8%-6.0%56.5%45.2%10.6%
3M Rtn15.9%12.3%23.4%-0.3%28.1%40.0%19.7%
6M Rtn28.2%26.8%38.8%16.3%50.1%179.2%33.5%
12M Rtn11.8%26.6%19.9%-8.2%-21.4%54.1%15.9%
3Y Rtn113.2%105.3%60.2%35.6%382.9%81.4%93.4%
1M Excs Rtn6.1%6.1%12.4%-7.0%57.7%43.3%9.3%
3M Excs Rtn7.8%7.7%20.9%-4.7%24.7%27.6%14.3%
6M Excs Rtn14.0%12.5%24.6%2.1%35.9%165.0%19.3%
12M Excs Rtn-5.9%11.1%5.1%-21.5%-32.1%36.6%-0.4%
3Y Excs Rtn32.0%31.4%-10.5%-39.5%299.2%-0.1%15.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment14,88915,61616,67013,80016,383
Total14,88915,61616,67013,80016,383


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment560    
Total560    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity20,212,742
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-3.1%
Average Daily Volume11,750,196
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.72
Basic Shares Quantity372,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/20/20258.2%19.3% 
8/28/20251.5%9.8%-1.6%
5/29/2025-20.2%-22.8%-22.0%
3/6/202518.8%6.6%-1.8%
11/21/202412.8%10.0%8.9%
8/29/20241.6%-5.0%-4.5%
5/30/202428.6%14.4%3.3%
3/7/20248.2%19.0%21.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive16138
# Negative71015
Median Positive7.6%16.8%14.1%
Median Negative-6.1%-11.7%-6.6%
Max Positive30.6%38.0%53.4%
Max Negative-24.1%-32.0%-26.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251125202510-Q 11/1/2025
7312025829202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025530202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025318202510-K 1/31/2025
103120241126202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024830202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024531202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024319202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231121202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023825202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023526202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023314202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221122202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022826202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022527202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022315202210-K 1/29/2022

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Donohue Elisabeth B 11262025Sell27.113,00081,33227,110Form